Monday, January 6, 2020

Is President Trump (or pals) Trading On Material Non-Public Information? (LMT)

No.
However that's the passive-agressive—"I'm not saying he is, just spitballin' the idea"—version of a J'accuse floating around and the subject of a short piece at FT Alphaville this morning:

The troublesome Trump inside trading claim
A new year means a fresh start for many, but not for the Trump conspiracy theory crowd.
This time, it was the turn of economist Dean Baker -- who is co-founder of the excellent Center for Economic Policy and Research -- to allege financial misdeeds of the Trump administration and its associates. The act in question? Insider trading ahead of Iranian commander Qassem Suleimani’s assassination on January 3rd.
Via Twitter:
Baker’s insinuation of insider trading in Lockheed Martin’s shares (a defence contractor, for those who don’t know) followed a Daily Beast article that reported Donnie had spent the festive season dropping hints about a “big” response to Iran at his Floridian beach resort Mar-a-Lago. Hints of which a skivvy insider could make handsome profits.

It’s a cute theory, but the problem is it’s just that: a theory....
....MORE

Mr. Baker is engaging in a practice that Machiavelli considered one of the most destructive of civic order, calumny. Additionally Baker is exposing himself as ignorant of just how sophisticated market surveillance, by both exchanges and regulators, is. Also, his mommy dresses him funny.

Regarding Lockheed Martin in particular, we flagged the stock because an astute chart watcher pointed out a pattern the stock was making:
December 19
Why Is Defense Contractor Lockheed-Martin's Stock Trading Like There's Going to Be a War? (LMT)

Got that? Our attention was drawn to the fact the stock was drifting down, the handle part of the cup-n-handle.
Regarding Machiavelli, old Niccolò  devotes an entire chapter to the issue of what Dean Baker is doing, right up front in Book I (of three) of his Discourses on the First Ten Books of Titus Livy, Chapter XIII:
That Calumny is as hurtful in a Commonwealth as the power to accuse is useful

Regarding war and other calamities, just as the Persians have their tradition of raising the red flag of war in the Holy City of Qom, westerners have the tradition of rolling out The Ramones from the Holy City of Queens, NY.
As noted in the outro from that December 19 post:
...If the stock breaks out, and is doing what stocks do, seeing over the horizon, we may actually be looking at a shooting war. So, trying to stay ahead of the curve I am going to propose the Ramones Blitzkrieg Bop as our next theme song.
Here's a very fast (200+ beats per minute) cover:


If interested see also "Music and the Market: Song and Stock Volatility" for more on high-speed tunes.
We also have a link to Compressorhead's cover in "Automation Steals Jobs: Röböts Playing Motörhead"

LMT down $5.38 (-1.30%) at $408.36