Sunday, September 6, 2015

Roubini Dismisses China Scare as False Alarm, Stuns With Optimism

We seem to have entered a phantasmagorical vortex of shape-shifting market madness.
Or something.

It's not the headline, it's the self-appointed messenger.*
As for Roubini, we've never been all that impressed**

From Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writing at the Telegraph, Sept. 4, 2015:

Economist describes alarmist reaction to the Shanghai stock market rout as 'excessive, unreasonable and irrational'
Nouriel Roubini has cast aside his mantle as the lugubrious "Dr Doom" of the global economy, scathingly dismissing market panic over China as "manic depressive" behaviour by ill-informed investors.
"China is not in free-fall," he told the Ambrosetti forum of world leaders on Lake Como.
Mr Roubini, a professor at New York University, described the alarmist reaction to the Shanghai stock market rout as "excessive, unreasonable and irrational".
The Shanghai bourse is largely closed to the rest of the world and is thinly owned by Chinese citizens, while the country's banking system is state-owned and therefore has the entire resources of the Communist regime to avert a financial meltdown.
While the equity collapse has been dramatic, the number of shares in private hands amounts to just 30pc of GDP, compared to 81pc on Wall Street in 1929 and 183pc in 2000.

Mr Roubini said global markets have swung with impetuous ferocity from complacency about Chinese uber-growth to "extreme pessimism", suddenly switching from talk of 7pc growth rates to 3pc or even zero, when in reality little has changed.

"None of this is happening. The slowdown in China is neither a hard landing or a soft landing, it's a bumpy landing. It could be better managed but growth is not likely to be worse than 6.5pc this year and 6pc next year," he said.

It is an unusual reversal of roles for the man known across the financial world as the prophet of the Lehman crash, almost invariably described by commentators as a perma-bear.

Mr Roubini, who also runs Roubini Global Economics, said the contractionay fiscal policies that have held back recovery across the developed world since 2008 are finally abating.

"Germany seems to have accepted the need for expansionary policies. The whole of fiscal policy in Europe is shifting," he said.

The pace of debt-deleveraging is slowing. Recovery in the US and the eurozone itself is gradually picking up.

Mr Roubini said Western markets have misunderstood the purpose behind China's move to shake up its exchange regime, mistakenly seeing it as the start of a steep devaluation that could send powerful deflationary shocks through the global economy.

This has not happened so far. The yuan has been strengthening over recent days as the central bank (PBOC) intervenes in the market to stabilize the rate, and premier Li Keqiang has vowed to keep the exchange broadly stable - in trade-weighted terms.
The yuan has lost just 2.2pc since the PBOC shock the world by ditching its dollar peg and switching to a managed float on August 11, setting off a minor earthquake and a full-blown correction on Wall Street and European stock markets....MORE
*I used to joke "Our old pal, the Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, writes on a continuum that ranges from morose to suicidal. Here he is at his despondent best...

** The last time Nouriel was like this, January 2014:

To be fair, Roubini is better at economics than he is at business or investments. See links after the jump....
... October 11, 2011
Roubini's Firm Losing Money, Up For Sale

From CNBC:
Roubini Global Economics, the economics research firm begun by noted economist Nouriel Roubini, is for sale, according to sources who have been approached by an investment bank conducting an auction for the firm.

According to people who have seen the offering book for the sale, the firm is projected to have revenues of $14 million this year and it will post a loss of roughly $2 million dollars, and projects eight percent revenue growth into next year followed by 40 percent revenue growth in 2013....MORE
November 9, 2009
A Chart of Roubini’s Horrible Track record in 2009
From Wall Street Cheat Sheet:
As many of you know, Wall St. Cheat Sheet is on a mission to expose some of the biggest frauds on Wall Street. Most recently we did an extensive open-source research project on Nouriel Roubini and Jim Cramer. As a follow up, a new friend Nadeem Walayat posted a nice chart (including full citations) of Roubini’s major money-losing calls in 2009:
I’ve come to the conclusion that the only people ignorant enough to defend Roubini are those who accidentally listened to him during the one brief moment he was right (for all the wrong reasons). If you followed his bearish advice in 2005, you would have either missed the entire rally through 2007, or you would have lost money shorting the market. If you would have followed his advice starting on March 9, 2009, you would have lost a ton of money. We should also note that Roubini said Oil would stay below $40 a barrel for all of 2009. Ouch.
Anyway, once again, science and facts prove that there are many “gurus” on TV telling the investing public how to invest, yet they cannot beat an ETF.
And more recently:
Feb. 2013
"Roubini: Short-Term Bullish, Long-Term Catastrophic"
Feb. 2012 
Watching for the Asteroid: Roubini Turning Bullish

If you want more, I think DealBreaker's Bess Levin has a bit of a crush on him.