Monday, August 10, 2020

Russian Foreign Exchange Reserves Approaching All-Time High

Elvira Nabiullina is the best central banker in the world.
From RT:
On path to new all-time record: Russia's forex reserves hit 12-year high
Russian gold and foreign currency holdings have risen by over $9 billion in one week and could top the previous record of over $598 billion in August, analysts polled by RIA Novosti predict. 
The international funds came closer to the previous peak at the end of last month, as they climbed to the highest point in 12 years to $591.8 billion, according to the latest figures from the Russian Central Bank. The data released on Friday shows that the holdings rose by $9.1 billion, or about 1.6 percent, in just one week (July 24-31). The regulator said that the increase was driven by “positive revaluation” and gold’s rally....
....MUCH MORE

As noted in March 9's post on the collapse in oil prices:

Russia's Central Bank Gamed This Scenario Out Years Ago, Did Yours? 
We are fans of Elvira Nabiullina. She was named Euromoney's Central Bank Governor of the Year in 2015 and quite frankly could have taken home the accolade a half-dozen times in the last decade.

Imagine having to do a high wire act, allowing the rouble to fall, keeping rates up to counteract the inflationary tendency that introduces, trying to account for the huge asset flows in the underground/oligarch economy while all the while Putin is yelling at you from the sidelines.
She is very good at what she does.

First up ZeroHedge a few hours ago:
Russia Says It Can Weather $25 Oil For Up To 10 Years
*****
Now Russia cannot compete at $20, the infrastructure is too old and creaky.
But they definitely can compete at $35 which we know because Elvira told us so back in 2015:
Russia Central Bank Prepares For Three Years of $35 Oil

And in the last half-decade she has had time to refine the plan and the government almost surely can survive at $30.
$25 might be a stretch but long before that becomes a problem, over half of American shale production becomes uneconomical to the point of bankruptcy.

Previously on the fanboi channel:
May 27, 2019
Interview With One Of The Sharpest Central Bankers In the World, Russia's Elvira Nabiullina
We've been singing her praises for a few years now. Here's the introduction to a 2018 post:
"Russia’s central bank quietly raised its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points on Friday"


If you think having Donald Trump question the Fed head for raising rates is playing rough, just imagine working for Vlad Putin as his popularity drops.
Considering the hand she's been dealt, the chief of the Russian central bank, Ms. Nabiullina, should have garnered a couple more Euromoney Central Banker of the Year awards to sit next to the one she received in 2015.

Seriously, since she took over in 2013 oil prices collapsed, then doubled, the annexation of Crimea led to the first set of sanctions, the rouble fell 50%, the U.S. Treasury threatened Russian banks with exclusion from SWIFT, the second set of sanctions on companies and oligarchs led to the retraction of multi-billion dollar credit facilities which had to be replaced internally and a couple other things that I'm having trouble remembering.
And all the while Vladimir is looking over your shoulder.

Anyway, all good mini-rants come to an end, here's the headline story from Sputnik CNBC
(astute reader will note eco-friendly intro recycling)

What Changed In Russian Central Banking? "Turning the Russian petro-monetary transmission mechanism upside-down"
Old Model of Russian Economic Growth Exhausted Itself - Central Bank Head

And many more, use the 'search blog' box if interested.