Thursday, August 20, 2020

EIA Natural Gas Storage Report, August 20

First up, from FX Empire, the estimates going into the report:
...Today’s EIA report, due to be released at 14:30 GMT, is expected to show a build of about 43 Bcf.
Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) is reporting that a Bloomberg survey of eight analysts showed injection estimates ranging from 36 Bcf to 48 Bcf, with a median build of 43 Bcf. A Reuters poll had a wider range from 33-53 Bcf with the same median build expectation of 43 Bcf.
NGI’s storage model predicted a 46 Bcf injection for this week’s report, which covers the week ending August 14.

According to NatGasWeather, “For today’s EIA storage report, national surveys are clustered at +43 Bcf, near exact to the 5-year average of +44 Bcf. It was warmer than normal over most of the U.S. besides the cooler Northwest. Our algorithm predicts a build of +41-42 Bcf, but difficult to account for how much fuel switching occurred after a more than 50 cent spike.”...
From the Energy Information Administration:
...Working gas in storage was 3,375 Bcf as of Friday, August 14, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 43 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 595 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 442 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,933 Bcf. At 3,375 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range....MUCH MORE 
Above the range is a bit of a negative for prices, the EIA's weekly graphic makes the point:
Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range
So trader's are hoping this week's power burn for air conditioning, reflected in next week's storage report, is a monster. But in the meantime trades are being initiated by sellers. From the CME, one week of 30-minute bars: