Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Confirming My Priors: The Next Tradable Correction

Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson via ZeroHedge:
....Second, in addition to the heightened concerns from schools moving online, Congress remains gridlocked over the next round of fiscal stimulus. Without it, Wilson thinks "the recovery will almost assuredly roll over, which is why we think there is little chance Congress will fail to execute, especially in an election year....

So, as Wilson asks, "what's going on?"

....His answer is that the inability of rates to move meaningfully higher is directly related to the hold-up on fiscal policy and growing concerns about schools reopening, and staying open.....
Which to my ears sounds remarkably similar to last week's lament:

Stocks and Bondage: The Market Is A Cruel Mistress
Our forecast for higher rates on the 10-year has been delayed by politicians arguing about the size of the next covid-19 package.
The expected $1 trillion+ in additional treasury issuance won't happen in what remains of August, at earliest sometime in the first couple weeks of September.

So, despite following the script from August 6's .5040% low yield to August 13's .7270%, the 10-year is back to this morning's .6490% yield.

This also means that commodities that have anti-correlations with rates, especially metals will be trading on fear-n-greed for a while longer before the master plan for world domination facilitated by the short-copper-it's-oversupplied thesis kicks in.....
Of course without the bondage.
Or the cruelty.

If interested here's ZeroHedge's August 24 post "Morgan Stanley Warns "The First Tradable Correction Could Begin Imminently".

10-Year yield back uo to 0.707
Top tick on August 13  0.7270

Earlier today:
Ummm... The 10-Year Note Is Rolling Over Again