However, the Americans do retain the ability, even if the tactics wouldn't be a reprise of the fire-bombings of Dresden and Tokyo. Speaker Pelosi is already using the verbiage of the ICC and Geneva Conventions with her repeated reference to "disproportional" [sic]; something you find in war crimes law (and the Catholic Church's thinking on "just war").
So no blinding flash of light over Tehran, at least until Iran attacks Israel and the deadman's hand triggers all those nukes on the Israeli submarines.
Instead the U.S. would probably turn off the electricity and turn Iran into Venezuela. A lot of oil and no toilet paper.
And Ayatollah Khamenei's advisors know this.
Here's a story that was in The National Interest via Yahoo News a week ago:
A F-22 Raptor Snuck Right Underneath an Iranian Fighter Jet
Key point: Stealth is one of the most important elements of combat.
Back in 2013, Pentagon press secretary George Little said that an Iranian air force F-4 Phantom combat plane attempted to intercept a U.S. MQ-1 Predator drone flying through international airspace near Iran.
As we reported back then, one of the two F-4 Phantom jets — in service in Iran since the Shah — came to about 16 miles from the Predator, but broke off pursuit after two American planes escorting the drone broadcast a warning message.
It was a close call.
The March 2013 episode happened only a few months after a two Sukhoi Su-25 attack planes operated by the Pasdaran (the informal name of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards) attempted to shoot down an American MQ-1 flying a routine surveillance flight in international airspace some 16 miles off Iran.
After this attempted interception, the Pentagon decided to escort drones involved in reconnaissance missions with fighter jets: either F-18 Hornets embarked on the aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis, currently in the U.S. Fifth Fleet area of responsibility, or F-22 Raptors like those deployed to Al Dhafra in the United Arab Emirates.They just don't have the technology.
New details about the latest episode were recently disclosed by Air Force chief of staff Gen. Mark Welsh at an annual conference of the Air Force Association. On Sept. 17, the general not only confirmed that the escorting fighters were F-22 stealth fighters but also said that: “He [the Raptor pilot] flew under their aircraft [the F-4s] to check out their weapons load without them knowing that he was there, and then pulled up on their left wing and then called them and said ‘you really ought to go home.’”
If the episode went exactly as Welsh described it, it was something more similar to Maverick’s close encounter with Russian MiG-28s in Top Gun than a standard interception....MORE
The Iranian escalations of the past year were so exquisitely calibrated, shoot down a drone, seize a British oil tanker, bomb Saudi infrastructure (via Yemani Houthi proxies) that it almost appeared someone with a very deep understanding of American psychology was directing the strategy.
Perhaps even an American consultant.
We haven't seen the last of the Iranian moves, their goal is to remove the U.S. President from office in the next election, so stay tuned. My bet the next Iranian action will be more sophisticated, something to present the President a no-win quandary, damned if you do, damned if you don't sort of stuff.
In the meantime there are reports that Iranian secret police have been arresting IRGC officers to forestall any rogue operations so, we'll just have to wait and see.
