First up the expectations going into the release via FX Empire, January 9:
...Today’s EIA weekly storage report is expected to show a 51 Bcf withdrawal. This is well below the historical norms for the week-ended January 3.And from the Energy Information Administration:
Bloomberg is expecting a median pull of 52 Bcf, with estimates ranging from minus 46 Bcf to minus 73 Bcf. Reuters calls for a 53 Bcf withdrawal, based on a range of minus 41 Bcf to minus 73 Bcf. NGI is forecasting a 51 Bcf withdrawal.
NGI added, “Last year, EIA reported a 91 Bcf withdrawal for the week-ended January 4, 2019. NGI calculations using EIA historical data show a five-year average withdrawal of 169 Bcf. That includes a record-setting 359 Bcf pull recorded for the week-ended January 5, 2018. As of Wednesday, EIA had not published its calculations showing historical comparisons for storage weeks in 2020....
for week ending January 3, 2020 | Released: January 9, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.
... Working gas in storage was 3,148 Bcf as of Friday, January 3, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 44 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 521 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 74 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,074 Bcf. At 3,148 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range....MOREToday however....not boring. Here's the action for the last few days from the CME:
$2.209 +0.043 (2%) cold front a'comin'.
Finally, also from the Energy Information Administration:
Natural Gas Weekly Update
for week ending January 8, 2020 | Release date: January 9, 2020
In the News:....MUCH MORE
Top natural gas stories in 2019: record levels of exports, production, and electric power consumption
Natural gas exports reached new highs in 2019, driven by LNG exports. Strong growth in exports of natural gas occurred, driven by record exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Several new LNG export facilities came online in 2019: the first train at Cameron LNG in May; the first and second trains at Freeport LNG in September and December, respectively; and the first five Moveable Modular Liquefaction System (MMLS) units at Elba Island LNG in December. Relatively low-cost natural gas supported exports of domestically produced natural gas. The United States has been a net exporter of natural gas for more than a year. EIA projects the United States will continue to be a net exporter through 2050 as a result of expected growth in both pipeline and LNG exports.
Natural gas production reached new highs in 2019. Similar to 2018, 2019 showed record levels of natural gas production, driven by growth in the Permian, Appalachian, and Haynesville Basins. Substantial new pipeline capacity supported the increased production, particularly in the Permian Basin, where prices were extremely low because the region did not have the pipeline capacity move natural gas out of the region. Much of the recent production growth is attributable to associated natural gas (natural gas that is produced from crude oil wells), which drove continued growth despite a somewhat unfavorable price environment.
Natural gas consumption in the electric power sector (power burn) reached new highs in 2019. During the summer of 2019, power burn also set several daily records. Lower natural gas prices led to increased natural gas consumption by power plants. In addition, the power sector added substantial natural gas-fired generation capacity in 2019, continuing the significant increase in capacity in 2018. The power sector has been trending toward more natural gas combined-cycle plants and renewable energy sources and fewer coal- and natural gas-fired plants that use older and less efficient technology. EIA forecasts that power burn will reach record highs in 2019, following similar record levels in 2018.
Overview:
(For the week ending Wednesday, January 8, 2019)
- Natural gas spot prices rose at most locations this report week (Wednesday, January 1 to Wednesday, January 8). The Henry Hub spot price rose from $2.05 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.08/MMBtu yesterday.
- At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the price of the February 2020 contract increased 2¢, from $2.122/MMBtu last Thursday to $2.141/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging February 2020 through January 2021 futures contracts climbed 3¢/MMBtu to $2.319/MMBtu.
- The net withdrawal from working gas totaled 44 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending January 3. Working natural gas stocks total 3,148 Bcf, which is 20% more than the year-ago level and 2% more than the five-year (2015–19) average for this week.
- The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 18¢/MMBtu, averaging $5.07/MMBtu for the week ending January 8. The prices of ethane and propane fell by 15% and 3%, respectively. The prices of butane and isobutane rose by 3% and 2%, respectively. The price of natural gasoline remained flat week over week.
- According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, December 31, the natural gas rig count decreased by 2 to 123. The number of oil-directed rigs fell by 7 to 670. The total rig count decreased by 9, and it now stands at 796.
Prices/Supply/Demand:
Henry Hub prices are the lowest they have been at the start of the year in a decade. This report week (Wednesday, January 1 to Wednesday, January 8), the Henry Hub spot price rose 3¢ from $2.05/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.08/MMBtu yesterday, after reaching a low of $2.00/MMBtu on January 2. This spot price is the lowest for the first day of January trading since 2016. Although still cold, temperatures were significantly warmer than normal across the Lower 48 states, especially compared with the first week of January last year when temperatures were unseasonably cold. At the Chicago Citygate, the price increased 2¢ from $1.95/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.97/MMBtu yesterday....
