Monday, December 5, 2011


S&P futures are up 15.40 at 1258.90 which would clear the 200-day convincingly, if it holds.
Boy did I call this wrong,

Back on October 27 I said, rather blithely:
"S&P 500 Breaks Above 200-Day Moving Average" (SPX; SPY)
The S&P is currently up 43.26 at 1285.26.

This move above the MA isn't as big a deal as it might appear, the 200-day didn't offer much resistance on the way down so there's not a lot of congestion on the way up. The next real test is the spring high, 1,363.61 on April 29....
The index closed at 1284.59 that day.
In my defense I did continue:
And if you see a pattern like this (DJIA):

April 29  12,810

May 2     12,807
May 3     12,807

run for the hills.

That was the DJIA top for this year and for the current cyclical bull market....
The S&P Closed at 1285.09 the next day, up a whopping 1/2 point before collapsing 2.47% on the 31st and a further 2.79% on Nov. 1.
I hate Europe Euromess.
Here's the latest from StockCharts' ChartWatchers blog:
STOCK RALLY STALLS AT 200-DAY AVERAGE... This past week's impressive stock rally ran into some profit-taking on Friday just shy of 200-day moving averages. Charts 1 and 2 show the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closing near the their daily lows after nearing that important resistance barrier. The daily stochastic lines below Chart 1 turned up from a short-term oversold reading (below 20) which helped support this week's strong rebound. The two lines, however, are already nearing overbought territory over 80. Needless to say, those market indexes need to clear their 200-day lines if this week's rally is going to turn into something more meaningful.

DOLLAR BOUNCES OFF 50-DAY LINE ... Part of Friday's stock selling may be the result of a bouncing dollar. Chart 3 shows the DB Bullish Dollar ETF (UUP) bouncing off its 50-day average on Friday....MORE