Thursday, October 27, 2011

"S&P 500 Breaks Above 200-Day Moving Average" (SPX; SPY)

The S&P is currently up 43.26 at 1285.26.

This move above the MA isn't as big a deal as it might appear, the 200-day didn't offer much resistance on the way down so there's not a lot of congestion on the way up. The next real test is the spring high, 1,363.61 on April 29.

And if you see a pattern like this (DJIA):

April 29  12,810
May 2     12,807
May 3     12,807

run for the hills.
That was the DJIA top for this year and for the current cyclical bull market.

On July 16th, 1990 the DJIA closed at 2999.75.
On July 17th, 1990 the DJIA closed at 2999.75, the exact same closing print and I pointed out to an old-timer “Hey we almost closed at 3000″.
His reply: “Yeah, but we didn’t, I’m going short”.

By Aug 1 we were at 2,899.26.

The next day Iraq invaded Kuwait.

By Oct 11 we were at 2365, down 21% from where the pro decided to make some money.

From Bespoke Investment Group:
The S&P 500 has broken above its 200-day moving average today for the first time since August 2nd.  Just 18 trading days ago, the index was 16% below its 200-day.