Monday, October 31, 2011

Ursininity: Bob Janjuah Appears Headed Toward His Winter Den

I usually agree with Mr. Janjuah but not this time, at least not on the timing.

When I checked to see if 'ursininity' was a word (it is now, or as soon as the googlebots find it) the google box kept asking me "Did you mean 'asininity'?" and I kept thinking "NO, he's not a Permabear" but it does no good to yell at the google box so I looked for a post, anywhere, written by anyone, that would combine the Latin bear refs with a hint of bull.

And found me.
"***Alert*** Bob "the Bear" Janjuah is About to Become Bullish ***Alert*** (before returning to his ursine lair)".

Here's the latest from the cave, via FT Alphaville:
Greed and fear with Bob the Bear
And now for something completely different.
In his latest note to clients, Nomura’s Bob Janjuah goes all technical:
In terms of the secular outlook, I wanted to do something different, so I have included below a classic Greed & Fear chart. The chart looks at a 90 year history of the Dow, rebased in terms of the price of an ounce of Gold. I am not including this chart to specifically support my secular bullish Gold view or my secular bearish equity view.
Click to enlarge

Rather, for me, this chart speaks to long-term trends and turns in the Greed & Fear equation, which is a principle driver of market returns. I find this chart stunningly clear and simple in its message: Over the next year or so the Dow can, in Gold terms, hit a ratio of 1. Think about that. Of course I know many folks dismiss such chartlology (I have too much respect for the world’s technical analysts to call my work technical analysis), and I know many folks look at Gold as some barbaric relic. So readers should feel free to dismiss the message from this chart...MORE
Within a year?

Here he is at CNBC:
'Emperors With No Clothes’ Driving S&P to 700 – Bear
And as recently as Oct 3 it was:
UPDATED: Nomura's Bob Janjuah: "We are in a secular bear market"