Wednesday, December 28, 2011

United-ICAP's Walter Zimmerman: "S&P to 579.57"

Back in September 2008 Mr. Zimmerman's Bullish case (recession) had the S&P dropping to 791 by May 2010, his Bearish case (depression) was S&P 307 by November 2011 a nice bracket of the March 6, 2009 intraday low of 666.79, although off on the duration (thank goodness). Pages 64-65 of 68 page PDF.

United Energy-ICAP is one of the largest inter-dealer brokers in the world, something like $1.5Trillion (T!) per day. 
From MarketBeat
United-ICAP senior technical analyst Walter Zimmerman says the S&P 500 could rally a little further into January before beginning a “traumatic decline” for the rest of 2012, dragged down by weakness in Europe.
How traumatic? You might want to sit down for this one.

He thinks the index will reach its 2012 peak in the 1293-1311 zone, then start a “sharp and sustained drop” until December. His downside target is around 579.57.

579.57! The index would have to wipe out the March 2009 lows and fall by more than 50% current levels to reach that target. And the last time the S&P 500 traded below 600 was in the mid 1990s, when the Backstreet Boys burst on the scene and bell-bottom jeans were making a comeback....MORE
The S&P closed at 1265 yesterday. Here's the CNBC video:

Back in July we announced the running of our inaugural Gloomster Stakes:
Coming into the Far Turn Russell Napier and Albert Edwards Lead the Gloomster Stakes But Felix Zulauf is Making a Move With an S&P at 500 Prediction
Napier is at 400
Albert says 450
Bob Janjuah trails at 550...
...Zulauf at 500...
As you see, Mr. Zimmerman faces some stiff competition as his number is higher even than that of Nomura's Mr. Sunshine, Bob 'the bear" Janjuah.