If you've been following the news out of the Consumer Electronics Show it seems that any company or industry that Jensen Huang mentions or even thinks about gets a 10 or 15% bump in their stock price even as NVDA flatlines:
Up 1.8% over the last month, not quite as dreary as the action that prompted one of Warren Buffett's greatest lines* but still...
And the headline story from Barron's, January 7:
Nvidia is missing out on the latest surge in the artificial-intelligence trade. Investors look to be waiting for confirmation it will be able to sell its chips in China or of major new orders from American companies.
Nvidia shares were up 0.5% at $188.16 in after-hours trading on Tuesday. The stock fell 0.5% during Tuesday’s trading session and is down around 1% over the past three months.
It’s not that investors are losing interest in the AI trade—just look at the huge gains in memory component companies like Sandisk SNDK +27.56%.
But shareholders look to have largely priced in the success of Nvidia’s latest Vera Rubin hardware for the U.S. and are still skeptical over whether it will be allowed to sell its H200 chip for the Chinese market.
“We’ve fired up our supply chain, and H200s are flowing through the line,” Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said Tuesday during a question-and-answer session at the CES trade show, according to The Wall Street Journal. “We’re getting the last details of the licensing finished with the U.S. government.”
Nvidia already has orders for more than two million H200 chips at a face value of $27,000 each, implying around $54 billion worth of revenue, Reuters previously reported. However, it’s not clear if authorities in Beijing will allow widespread purchases by Chinese customers....
...MORE, as that guy from Avon who said it in 1592 (also Scorpions 2010), the sting is in the tail.
September 2012 - Meet Warren Buffett, High Frequency Trader (BRK.B; INTC; WFC):
Well, high frequency for Mr. B.
...Secular bear markets are characterized first by the initial decline and then by P/E multiple contraction.
During the last secular bear, 1966-1982, the cyclical bear of '73-'74 had a S&P 500 trailing four quarters P/E of 6.97 for the quarter ending 9/30/74 while the '80-'82 cyclical had a P/E low of 6.68 for the quarter ended 3/31/80.
One of my favorite Warren Buffett quotes:
December 31, 1964: DJIA 874.12
December 31, 1981: DJIA 875.00
“Now I’m known as a long-term investor and a patient guy, but that is not my idea of a big move.”That’s a secular bear market.
—Warren Buffett
