You don't hear much about cobalt any more do you?
From EETimes, August 25:
Not accidental but the result of a “very smart” long-term strategy, over ten years, to prioritize LFP batteries.
For over a decade, China has meticulously orchestrated a strategic ascent in the global electric vehicle (EV) batteries market, culminating in a dominance that now presents a formidable challenge to Western manufacturers.
From government-backed gigafactories to proprietary technology in crucial materials, China has established what one industry expert describes as “almost a moat” around its battery production, leaving Europe and the United States scrambling to catch up.
In an exclusive interview with EE Times, Doron Myersdorf, CEO of the battery technology company StoreDot, offers a stark assessment of the geopolitical and technological landscape. He attributes China’s current position to a “very smart” long-term strategy, initiated over ten years ago, to prioritize Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries.
This foresight capitalized on China’s abundant iron resources and its early development of intellectual property (IP) in producing the composite for liquid fermions.
LFP power play and China’s strategic advantage
China’s calculated shift from Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) to LFP production was not merely a material preference; it was a blueprint for global control. Myersdorf notes that it was “there was a deliberate long-term strategy, conceived a decade ago, to leverage existing supply chains, intellectual property, and operational gigafactories. This foresight has resulted in a global dominance in LFP production today.”This strategic leverage is evident in the struggles of companies like Northvolt, Europe’s once-heralded battery hope, which, despite significant efforts, was unable to achieve the economies of scale or yield competitive advantages, partly due to its reliance on Chinese equipment and expertise.
Beyond raw material control, China has innovated within LFP chemistry, significantly improving efficiency. By enabling the use of larger LFP cells—a design not feasible with NMC due to safety concerns—Chinese manufacturers developed concepts like BYD’s blade battery and the “cell to pack,” “cell to chassis,” and “cell to body” designs.
These innovations eliminate modules and their associated overhead, a design inherent to NMC. Myersdorf explains that this combination of factors has effectively created “almost a monopoly on LFP” for China, establishing “like a moat for China in dominance of batteries for at least the next 10 years.”
While NMC still offers better performance for high-end vehicles, providing superior range and fast charging—a segment where StoreDot leverages NMC and silicon to deliver technologies like the Polestar 5, capable of charging in 10 minutes, LFP remains the dominant choice for A, B, and C-segment cars, as well as commercial vehicles, primarily due to cost, with supply almost exclusively coming from China.
Another critical component, graphite for anodes, also sees China holding a significant market share, “controlling over 90% percent of the graphite in the market.”....
....MUCH MORE
Deep Dive: Iron Batteries Crushed The Demand For Cobalt, Reduced The Demand For Nickel
Watch Out Elon, Here Come The Iron Batteries (TSLA)
Tesla's Pivotal Move In Battery Chemistry (TSLA)
"What Tesla’s bet on iron-based batteries means for manufacturers" (TSLA)
"Tesla will only use iron-based batteries for standard model EVs" (TSLA)
Batteries: Lithium-Iron may be Competitive With Lithium-Cobalt
Platts' "Commodity Tracker: 5 charts to watch this week"
Batteries: ...The Race to Build Europe’s First Lithium-Iron-Phosphate Battery Gigafactory
Lithium-Iron, it's all anyone is talking about....
"Tesla in talks with China's EVE for low-cost battery supply deal -sources" TSLA)
Well I guessTony StarkElon Musk is now officially Iron Man.One more from 2018—apparently a great year for Iron Age types while I kept writing Bronze Age on my checks. ("Dad, what's a check?"):
Twenty Month Payback for Tesla 100-MW Utility Scale Battery Storage System
Elon (and Panasonic) may have just found another multi-billion dollar business.
Going forward the chemistry probably won't be Lithium ion, maybe molten-salt or iron based, but the fact TSLA can now pitch this kind of payback probably heralds the beginnings of lithium rush 3.0, or at least the promotion thereof....
The fast-charging ability is going to be crucial for mass acceptance of electric vehicles if they are to be anything more than commuter-type transportation that can recharge overnight at home.
"China's top EV battery maker announced a breakthrough, but top boffin isn't convinced"
Watch Out Elon: "Wireless EV Charging Hits Key Benchmark"
Chinese EV battery maker CATL unveils LFP battery with 1,000 km range
It's not just the 620 mile range. The battery can handle extremely fast charging. From Electrek, also April 25:
CATL unveils world’s first LFP battery with 4C ultra-fast charging for 370-mi in 10 mins
"....that can add 370 miles (600 km) range in 10 minutes..."
And the flywheels? From the time CATL introduced the predecessor to the new battery, July 11, 2023:
"CATL announces new battery with 400 kilometer range on 10 minute charge"
Have I ever mentioned the "Flywheel Effect?"
*****
I think we're witnessing the Flywheel Effect in action at, not just China's but the world's largest battery producer.
Incremental advantages lead to overwhelming business success. I don't know if there are 16,000 researchers in the entire rest of the battery biz. If that's the case, how can they catch up to CATL?
Amazing what being able to hire 16,000 researchers can lead to,
And just for grins and giggles, from Reuters, April 29, 2024:
CATL boss visits Elon Musk's Beijing hotel on Tesla CEO's surprise trip
