From Mining.com, January 5:
Blade runners: how LFP batteries brought EV metal markets back to earth
In February 2020, your reporter published the following headline:
Tesla’s China surprise big blow for cobalt, nickel price bulls
In a surprise move, China’s top battery manufacturer CATL will supply Tesla with lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries for Model 3 production at its newly built $2 billion factory outside Shanghai.
A follow up a year later confirmed the blow was bigly:
Cobalt, nickel free electric car batteries are a runaway success
Few months in, LFP Model 3 already commands 5% of global EV market, counts for 21% of Tesla battery capacity hitting roads–even before key patent expiry next year.The iron fist
It’s January 2024, and unfortunately for said cobalt and nickel bulls the blow from the iron fist is even more severe than feared. And the runaway success has become a battery-powered juggernaut.During that month nearly four years ago when Elon Musk first announced the move to LFP batteries, the cathode chemistry contributed less than 50 tonnes to overall battery metal demand, according to Adamas Intelligence, Toronto-based research consultants tracking demand for EV batteries by chemistry, cell supplier and capacity in over 110 countries.
The 50 tonnes LFP batteries used were a fraction of the nearly 13,000 tonnes of lithium, graphite, nickel, manganese and cobalt that found their way into the batteries of electric passenger cars sold during February 2020.
NCM (nickel-cobalt-manganese) and Tesla-Panasonic’s NCA (nickel-cobalt-aluminum) dominated the market for electric cars at the time. LFP fares badly against ternary cathode batteries in terms of energy and power density and therefore charging time and range. LFP’s cold weather performance is also significantly worse, but is hard to beat when it comes to cost, is better at
thermal stabilitynot catching fire and lifespan.Musk had long voiced concerns about nickel supply – once saying that he called up all the big mining CEOs to ask them to please make (sic) more nickel. Thrifting out cobalt was also a priority at the Texas-based electric car pioneer with Musk saying publicly that Teslas were virtually cobalt-free while simultaneously inking offtakes with Glencore.
At the time, LFP was associated with tiny and tinny city runabouts like the Wuling Hongguang Mini EV Macaron (not making that up and yes, there is a cabrio version and it’s called the FreZe Froggy in Europe), end-mile delivery vans, buses and other special purpose vehicles.
Range then as now was a top concern for those looking to electrify and the Wuling Mini EV (a GM joint venture creation now available in the top-of-the-range Gameboy Edition; look it up) only managed around 100 miles in lab conditions.
The Mini EV surpassed the Tesla Model 3 as China’s bestselling EV in 2020. A sticker price of less than $6,000 clinched it.
Like other outlets, this one was skeptical of the idea that LFP fitted well with Tesla’s luxury and sporty carmaker image.
We were wrong. Sorry again Mr Musk.
Build your nickel, cobalt free dreams
Weeks after Tesla’s Shanghai surprise, LFP received what turned out to be an even bigger boost to its build out.In March 2020, BYD “unsheathed to safeguard the world” its Blade batteries. The Shenzhen-based auto and battery manufacturer’s breakthrough technology compensated for the inherent energy density limitations of LFP by cramming more cells into battery packs.
BYD even said at the event (online only – this was March 2020 after all) it was happy to share the technology with all interested parties. Much was made of the safety of LFP over NCM. BYD shifted its entire range to LFP.
The month of the unsheathing Tesla supplied new owners of its S,3,X models and just launched Y, nine power hours for every one BYD did.
Today BYD’s full electric range outsells Tesla in good months. Factor in its popular plug-ins – also LFP only – and BYD is nearly 600,000 car lengths ahead of Tesla. Tellingly, BYD started out as a battery company in the 1990s.
BYD, in which Warren Buffet famously bought a stake in 2008 for $232 million that is still worth some $6 billion after years of steady divestment, sells one out of every five EVs around the world. That’s despite being largely absent from markets outside China (BYD supplies Tesla’s Berlin factory with LFP batteries).
LFP now also runs the gamut of vehicle segments. All the way from the Wuling Hongguang Nano EV (for those who found the Mini a bit too bulky) to BYD’s gigantic YangWang U8. The YangWang wagon can do a 360 degree tank turn, float on water and sail at 1.62 knots and retails for $150,000, making it China’s most expensive EV. It also weighs 3-and-half tonnes (another comparative downside of LFP).
The cheaper of the pack
During the first ten months of 2023 LFP cornered 31% of the global EV battery market in GWh terms despite virtually zero LFP manufacturing capacity outside China. By the time final registrations for the calendar year are tallied, it may well be a third.Nickel and cobalt containing batteries are now cut out of over half the Chinese market in GWh terms....
....MUCH MORE
I've mentioned that this Musk fellow seems to have a decent grasp of the electric vehicle business.
Back in 2018 we posted "Batteries: Lithium-Iron may be Competitive With Lithium-Cobalt" but with so many technologies that failed to scale-up over the years we are a little bit jaundiced about wasting the reader's time chasing every rabbit that pops up.
However, if this works, Elon may have found the chemistry for the next generation of Powerwalls....
Also from 2018:"Ten years left to redesign lithium-ion batteries"
This time frame is not too restrictive.
Tesla and their battery partner, Panasonic, have removed a lot of the cobalt (60%) from their battery recipe and are on their way to zero cobalt over the next couple years.
So, more interesting than any time pressure is the potential spur to creativity on the question of alternative chemistries.
From the journal Nature, July 25:...
One more from 2018—apparently a great year for Iron Age types while I kept writing Bronze Age on my checks. ("Dad, what's a check?"):
Twenty Month Payback for Tesla 100-MW Utility Scale Battery Storage System
Elon (and Panasonic) may have just found another multi-billion dollar business.
Going forward the chemistry probably won't be Lithium ion, maybe
molten-salt or iron based, but the fact TSLA can now pitch this kind of
payback probably heralds the beginnings of lithium rush 3.0, or at least
the promotion thereof....
And just so you know how long it can take to go from lab bench to production, this post is from 2008!
Lithium-Ion Batteries for Less
Previously:
May 2021: "Tesla in talks with China's EVE for low-cost battery supply deal -sources" TSLA)
Well I guess Tony Stark Elon Musk is now officially Iron Man.
July 2021: "What Tesla’s bet on iron-based batteries means for manufacturers" (TSLA)
December 2021: "Batteries: ...The Race to Build Europe’s First Lithium-Iron-Phosphate Battery Gigafactory"
Lithium-Iron, it's all anyone is talking about....
April 2022: "Tesla's Pivotal Move In Battery Chemistry (TSLA)"
May 2023: "Elon Musk Said Lithium Mining Is Not A Bottleneck, Lithium Refining Is; And He Thought... (TSLA)"
August 2023: "China's top EV battery maker announced a breakthrough, but top boffin isn't convinced"
And dozens hundreds more. If interested use the 'search blog' box, upper left.
For example, we had our fun with cobalt but:
"Tesla leads electric vehicle race to cut cobalt dependency" (TSLA)
