If your only source of information [for the first 18 months] following Russia's invasion of Ukraine had been the Institute for the Study of War you could be forgiven for thinking that Ukrainian troops had taken Moscow and were marching on the Russian far east, with Yakutsk and then Magadan preparing to surrender to the blue and yellow.
The ISW is a Kagan family enterprise with Kimberly Kagan at its head and her husband Frederick Kagan writing daily reports. The other Kagan brother is Robert, Mr. Victoria Nuland.
They appear to be beating the war drums to set up a second front in the Russo-Ukraine war in Transnistria, the Russian-backed breakaway bit of Moldova. (map follows)From Ukrainska Pravda, January 28:
Kremlin officials and mouthpieces are setting up information conditions to destabilise Moldova.
Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Details: Military analysts reported that this is being done to prevent Moldova's integration into the EU and the West.
Alexei Polishchuk, director of the Second Department for Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries at the Russian Foreign Ministry, said in an interview with the Kremlin's TASS news agency published on 28 January that Moldova has begun to "destroy its ties" with CIS member states and the Russian-led CIS organisation as a whole, and that there are rumours that Moldova plans to leave the CIS by the end of 2024.
Polishchuk said that this decision would not benefit either the interests or the citizens of Moldova and would be disadvantageous for Moldova's economy. Polishchuk also stated that the settlement of the Transnistria issue in Moldova is in a "deep crisis" and that Moldova's economic pressure on Transnistria since the beginning of 2024 has "further delayed" any solution. Polishchuk said that Russia is ready to resolve the deteriorating relations between Moldova and Transnistria "as a mediator and guarantor" of a settlement.
On 28 January, Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister Oleg Serebrian said that Moldova would not return to the 5+2 negotiation process on Transnistria until Russian-Ukrainian relations improve and Russia's war in Ukraine continues.
Russia, in particular, has accused Ukraine of abandoning the Minsk agreements, which basically froze the conflict after Russia's 2014 invasion in anticipation of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and Russia may be setting the information stage to make similar claims against Moldova.
ISW has previously assessed that the Kremlin is likely to create information conditions to justify future Russian aggression in Moldova under the guise of protecting its "compatriots abroad" and the "Russkiy Mir" ("Russian World") concepts that are deliberately based on vague definitions of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in foreign countries.
Russia may try to justify its aggression or destabilisation efforts in Moldova by claiming that Transnistrian residents are in danger because of Moldova's alleged refusal to engage in a settlement process in Transnistria. ISW suggested that the Kremlin may be turning to rhetorical narratives that appeal to a wider audience beyond the "Russkiy Mir"....
....MUCH MORE
On January 11 we saw "Russia may use Transnistria to block grain corridor from Ukraine - ISW" at Ukrinform.
And "ISW: Kremlin appears to guide Moldova’s Transnistria moves, laying ground for false flag" at EuroMaidan Press.
From December 23's "Moldova: Something's Cooking":
....Here's that bit of land via BigThink's Strange Maps:
If interested see some of our other posts on Transnistria.
