Odesa At Risk: "Russian stuff blowing up: Russia looks to play its Transnistria card"

First up, Daily Kos, December 10:

After almost four years of war in which Russia’s garrison in the separatist Transnistria region of Moldova has been quiet, Russia may be ready to use it against Ukraine.

Russia only has about 1,500 troops in Transnistria so there isn’t going to be an offensive launched. Most likely it would be small sabotage groups trying to infiltrate Ukrainian territory to the east. 

Why would they do that now? Two possible reasons — 1. They want to tie down Ukrainian troops along the border with Transnistria or 2. They have determined that for political and economic reasons they cannot sustain the garrison there much longer so they might as well use it.

Transnistria continues to exist in its current form only because Moldova has preferred diplomacy and cooperation instead of a new civil war and because It wasn’t seen as enough of a threat to justify a military operation to eliminate the Russian garrison there.

Also, Transnistria is the home of the Cobasna ammunition depot, the largest in Europe and full of aging munitions that no one in their right mind would want to deal with. Cobasna is in the northern part of Transnistria and just across the border with Ukraine....

....MUCH MORE 

As noted in 2024:

The typical sequence of events is for a country to claim their enemy is persecuting a minority within a territory, usually co-coreligionists or language-based, to set up a casus belli. Then skirmishes followed by warnings and finally full-scale hostilities.... 

NATO would love to have Russia extend itself further as proposed in the 2019 RAND Corporation report on how to bleed Russia dry militarily and perhaps more importantly, economically. From our February 6, 2022 post:

"The RAND Corporation Blueprint For Forcing Putin To Over-Extend Himself"

I hope that the U.S. or NATO or whoever commissioned this study didn't pay a lot for it, it's basically the strategy that Pope John Paul II, Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan came up with in the early 1980's although the details do differ. The tactical components of the RAND plan are:

 1. Arming Ukraine ;
 2. Increase support for jihadists in Syria;
 3. Promoting regime change in Belarus;
 4. Exploiting tensions in the South Caucasus;
 5. Reducing Russian influence in Central Asia;
 6. Rivaling the Russian presence in Transnistria.

....MUCH MORE

 Here's that bit of land via BigThink's Strange Maps:

And here is the relevant section of RAND's Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground, page 130 of the report (pp. 158 of the PDF)

Measure 6: Challenge Russian Presence in Moldova

Nestled between Romania and Ukraine with no seacoast of its own, Moldova, a former republic of the Soviet Union, is now an independent country. Transnistria is a Russian-speaking enclave within Moldova that currently hosts a Russian peacekeeping (some might say occupa- tion) force and army base. John Todd Stewart, who was U.S. ambassa- dor to Moldova from 1995 to 1998, described Moldova as “the Florida of the [Soviet Union], the republic with the most temperate climate, which was attractive to retirees. These people do not speak Romanian and have no connections with the area, period.”126 As the Soviet Union was collapsing in 1990, Transnistria—home to about a half-million Russophone residents today—broke away from Moldova.127

A brief conflict between pro-Transnistrian forces and the Moldovan police and military ended inconclusively.128 

Moldova never reasserted its control over the breakaway region, but no member of the United Nations— including Russia—recognized its existence either.129 

Therefore, Transnistria has existed in a sort of netherworld for the past several decades....

....MUCH MORE

 Kyiv Post, December 10:

Russia ‘Raising the Threat to Ukraine’: Transnistria Force, Drone Build Up, Intel Reports

A Kyiv Post intelligence source said Russia is rapidly boosting mobilization, drone production and covert operations in Transnistria to destabilize Moldova and raise the threat to Ukraine.

And Kyiv Post, December 14:

Russian Drone and Missile Barrage Cuts Off Odessa, Mykolaiv Amid Winter 

Odesa’s regional military administration head, Oleh Kiper, described the strikes as “one of the most massive” in recent weeks.

Again, the geography: 

A look at this map, by NPR's @mulletmapping, shows you this region would be relevant to the war in Ukraine:

-Not far from the Black Sea port of Odesa.
-Shares a 250 mile border with Ukraine
-Fighting could also imperil the north-south route from Kyiv to Odesa. pic.twitter.com/62AzdFlvqp

— Tim Mak (@timkmak) April 26, 2022

Finally Reuters, December 13:

Ukraine's Odesa suffers major blackouts after Russian attack 

War Drums Beating Faster For Moldova, Transnistria

Some of the recent stories: 

February 15, The Telegraph: "Moscow laying groundwork for Moldova invasion, warn experts":

The Kremlin is using “very similar” rhetoric towards Moldova as it did before its invasion of Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War reported.

The think tanks says Moscow’s methods are “likely” designed “to set conditions to justify possible future Russian escalation against Moldova”.

Addressing the Transnistria conflict, yesterday, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, made a series of allegations that mirror those directed at Ukraine ahead of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its full-scale invasion.

His allegations included falsely claiming that the US and EU control the Moldovan government. He also claimed that there are about 200,000 Russian citizens in Transnistria, and that Russia is “concerned about their fate” and “will not allow them to become victims of another Western adventure.” 

The Kremlin has used the idea of protecting its “compatriots abroad” to justify Russian occupation of Transnistria since 1992 as well as its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the ISW reported. 

“The timing of a possible Russian hybrid operation in Moldova is unclear, but the Kremlin is setting informational conditions to make it possible soon,” it said.

Picked up and amplified by EuroMaidan Press: "Putin dusts off Ukraine playbook for Moldova" The Odessa Journal "ISW: Kremlin conducts information operations in Moldova, echoing tactics preceding Ukrainian invasions" Britain's The Standard and The Express.

Pravda Ukraine, February 13: Moldovan Defence Ministry explains why Russian drone was not detected in time 

Moldova's Infotag News Agency, February 16: MOLDOVAN POLICE DETAIN FORMER TRANSNISTRIAN LAW ENFORCER FOR ORGANIZATION OF ILLEGAL MIGRATION 

Finally and perhaps more importantly, at Balkan Insight, February 16:

Russia Threatens Moldova With ‘Military Scenario’ Over Transnistria 

Top Kremlin officials have warned Moldova that any attempt to resolve the Transnistria issue by force will be be considered 'an attack on Russia'.

As noted January 30:
"Kremlin creates conditions to destabilise Moldova – ISW"

If your only source of information [for the first 18 months] following Russia's invasion of Ukraine had been the Institute for the Study of War you could be forgiven for thinking that Ukrainian troops had taken Moscow and were marching on the Russian far east, with Yakutsk and then Magadan preparing to surrender to the blue and yellow.

The ISW is a Kagan family enterprise with Kimberly Kagan at its head and her husband Frederick Kagan writing daily reports. The other Kagan brother is Robert, Mr. Victoria Nuland.

They appear to be beating the war drums to set up a second front in the Russo-Ukraine war in Transnistria, the Russian-backed breakaway bit of Moldova....

And January 14:
"Russia laying groundwork for a ‘false flag’ operation against Moldova in Transnistria"

The typical sequence of events is for a country to claim their enemy is persecuting a minority within a territory, usually co-coreligionists or language-based, to set up a casus belli. Then skirmishes followed by warnings and finally full-scale hostilities....

So why do we think hostilities are coming? Russia would love to have the western arm of a pincer squeezing Odesa and the Black Sea coast of Ukraine:

A look at this map, by NPR's @mulletmapping, shows you this region would be relevant to the war in Ukraine:

-Not far from the Black Sea port of Odesa.
-Shares a 250 mile border with Ukraine
-Fighting could also imperil the north-south route from Kyiv to Odesa. pic.twitter.com/62AzdFlvqp

— Tim Mak (@timkmak) April 26, 2022

While NATO would love to have Russia extend itself further as proposed in the 2019 RAND Corporation report on how to bleed Russia dry militarily and perhaps more importantly, economically. From our February 6, 2022 post:

"The RAND Corporation Blueprint For Forcing Putin To Over-Extend Himself"

I hope that the U.S. or NATO or whoever commissioned this study didn't pay a lot for it, it's basically the strategy that Pope John Paul II, Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan came up with in the early 1980's although the details do differ. The tactical components of the RAND plan are:

 1. Arming Ukraine ;
 2. Increase support for jihadists in Syria;
 3. Promoting regime change in Belarus;
 4. Exploiting tensions in the South Caucasus;
 5. Reducing Russian influence in Central Asia;
 6. Rivaling the Russian presence in Transnistria.

....MUCH MORE

 Here's that bit of land via BigThink's Strange Maps:

And here is the relevant section of RAND's Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground, page 130 of the report (pp. 158 of the PDF)

Measure 6: Challenge Russian Presence in Moldova

Nestled between Romania and Ukraine with no seacoast of its own, Moldova, a former republic of the Soviet Union, is now an independent country. Transnistria is a Russian-speaking enclave within Moldova that currently hosts a Russian peacekeeping (some might say occupa- tion) force and army base. John Todd Stewart, who was U.S. ambassa- dor to Moldova from 1995 to 1998, described Moldova as “the Florida of the [Soviet Union], the republic with the most temperate climate, which was attractive to retirees. These people do not speak Romanian and have no connections with the area, period.”126 As the Soviet Union was collapsing in 1990, Transnistria—home to about a half-million Russophone residents today—broke away from Moldova.127

A brief conflict between pro-Transnistrian forces and the Moldovan police and military ended inconclusively.128 

Moldova never reasserted its control over the breakaway region, but no member of the United Nations— including Russia—recognized its existence either.129 

Therefore, Transnistria has existed in a sort of netherworld for the past several decades....

....MUCH MORE

"Why are Russian pundits claiming Romania is preparing to invade Transnistria?"

It's a casus belli.

First up, referring back to February 6ths "The RAND Corporation Blueprint For Forcing Putin To Over-Extend Himself"

I hope that the U.S. or NATO or whoever commissioned this study didn't pay a lot for it, it's basically the strategy that Pope John Paul II, Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan came up with in the early 1980's although the details do differ. The tactical components of the RAND plan are:

 1. Arming Ukraine ;
 2. Increase support for jihadists in Syria;
 3. Promoting regime change in Belarus;
 4. Exploiting tensions in the South Caucasus;
 5. Reducing Russian influence in Central Asia;
 6. Rivaling the Russian presence in Transnistria.

....MUCH MORE

On January 12 Victoria Nuland showed this approach is top-of-mind in the Biden Administration. From Interfax Ukraine:

Nuland: I'm going to let Russians speak for themselves how long they can financially back placement of troops near Ukraine

And from BNE IntelliNews, April 26:

Russian media have been reporting claims by figures including a former minister from Ukraine’s separatist Donetsk region that EU and Nato member Romania is preparing to take Moldova’s pro-Russian Transnistria region by force. 

The bizarre claims were widely reported in the Russian media following the first of a series of as yet unexplained attacks on targets within Transnistria, a Russia-backed separatist region in the east of Moldova, bordering Ukraine. There is no evidence to support them, yet they raise some worrying questions about Russia's future intentions towards Transnistria. 

As reported by bne IntelliNews, after news broke of an attack from a grenade launcher later identified as a RPG-27 Tavolga on the empty headquarters of the Ministry of State Security (MGB) in Tiraspol, the Russian public were inundated with propaganda claiming that Romania has nearly invaded Moldova and is preparing to oppress Russian-speaking nationals in Transnistria.

“Romania, with the support of Nato and with the participation of the Ukrainian army, plans to seize Transnistria and carry out massive political repressions against all supporters of Russia,” Russian daily Pravda announced immediately after the incident in Tiraspol, quoting politologist Sergei Markov.

The so-called expert claimed that the Romanian army has already been deployed in Moldova and forces are being built up.

Earlier, the former minister of defence of the unrecognised Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) in eastern Ukraine, Igor Strelkov, claimed that Romania was conducting covert preparations to capture Moldova.

According to him, a significant part of the Moldovan officers in all headquarters in all key positions have been replaced by officers of the Romanian army.

The unfounded claims have not yet received any official response from Romania, a staunch backer of Ukraine in the war against Russia, as well as a supporter of Moldova, whose economy has been hard hit by the war on its eastern border. 

While they are unlikely to carry any weight in either Moldova or Transnistria, set against observations on the ground, they may help convince some of the Russian public should Moscow be gearing up for action in Moldova. 

Moldova is seen as the most vulnerable country to a potential spillover from the conflict, given its status as a small post-Soviet state, close to the fighting and with part of its territory occupied by Russia-backed separatists. 

Officials in both Chisinau and Tiraspol have so far largely refrained from comments that could lead to an escalation of the situation. While condemning the invasion, the Moldovan government has insisted on maintaining its neutrality and unlike Ukraine, has not been pursuing Nato membership, although it recently applied to join the EU. 

For its part, the government of Transnistria has linked the attacks to Ukraine. The unrecognised republic's President Vadim Krasnoselsky commented on April 26: "I assume that those who organised this attack have the goal of dragging Pridnestrovie into the conflict."

Tensions between Chisinau and Moscow increase 

However, tensions between Chisinau and Moscow have increased in the last week, after Russian Brigadier General Rustam Minnekayev said on April 22 that the Russian army plans to take Ukraine's Donbas region, then create land corridors to both the Crimea and Transnistria.

"Since the beginning of the second phase of the special operation, which has already begun, literally two days ago, one of the tasks of the Russian army is to establish full control over the Donbas and southern Ukraine," said Minnekayev, the acting commander of Russia’s Central Military District, as reported by Tass.

"Control over the south of Ukraine is another way out to Pridnestrovie [Transnistria], where there are also facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population. Apparently, we are now at war with the whole world, as it was in the Great Patriotic War, all of Europe, the whole world was against us. And now the same thing, they never liked Russia," added Minnekayev....

....MUCH MORE

A look at this map, by NPR's @mulletmapping, shows you this region would be relevant to the war in Ukraine:

-Not far from the Black Sea port of Odesa.
-Shares a 250 mile border with Ukraine
-Fighting could also imperil the north-south route from Kyiv to Odesa. pic.twitter.com/62AzdFlvqp

— Tim Mak (@timkmak) April 26, 2022

If the Russians take Odessa the resulting Ukraine would be a landlocked rump state similar to the Russophile/Europhile Presidential election map from a dozen years ago:

Daily Mail, February 23, 2014

Or, going a bit further back in time, as noted February 28:

....And if I didn't know better—seriously, who would be that revanchist—I'd say the Russians are trying to recreate the Novorossiya (New Russia) of Catherine the Great:

We didn't have all those posts on Crimea for nothing you know.....

"Kremlin creates conditions to destabilise Moldova – ISW"

If your only source of information [for the first 18 months] following Russia's invasion of Ukraine had been the Institute for the Study of War you could be forgiven for thinking that Ukrainian troops had taken Moscow and were marching on the Russian far east, with Yakutsk and then Magadan preparing to surrender to the blue and yellow.

The ISW is a Kagan family enterprise with Kimberly Kagan at its head and her husband Frederick Kagan writing daily reports. The other Kagan brother is Robert, Mr. Victoria Nuland.

They appear to be beating the war drums to set up a second front in the Russo-Ukraine war in Transnistria, the Russian-backed breakaway bit of Moldova. (map follows)

From Ukrainska Pravda, January 28:

Kremlin officials and mouthpieces are setting up information conditions to destabilise Moldova.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Military analysts reported that this is being done to prevent Moldova's integration into the EU and the West.

Alexei Polishchuk, director of the Second Department for Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries at the Russian Foreign Ministry, said in an interview with the Kremlin's TASS news agency published on 28 January that Moldova has begun to "destroy its ties" with CIS member states and the Russian-led CIS organisation as a whole, and that there are rumours that Moldova plans to leave the CIS by the end of 2024.

Polishchuk said that this decision would not benefit either the interests or the citizens of Moldova and would be disadvantageous for Moldova's economy. Polishchuk also stated that the settlement of the Transnistria issue in Moldova is in a "deep crisis" and that Moldova's economic pressure on Transnistria since the beginning of 2024 has "further delayed" any solution. Polishchuk said that Russia is ready to resolve the deteriorating relations between Moldova and Transnistria "as a mediator and guarantor" of a settlement.

On 28 January, Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister Oleg Serebrian said that Moldova would not return to the 5+2 negotiation process on Transnistria until Russian-Ukrainian relations improve and Russia's war in Ukraine continues.

Russia, in particular, has accused Ukraine of abandoning the Minsk agreements, which basically froze the conflict after Russia's 2014 invasion in anticipation of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and Russia may be setting the information stage to make similar claims against Moldova.

ISW has previously assessed that the Kremlin is likely to create information conditions to justify future Russian aggression in Moldova under the guise of protecting its "compatriots abroad" and the "Russkiy Mir" ("Russian World") concepts that are deliberately based on vague definitions of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in foreign countries.

Russia may try to justify its aggression or destabilisation efforts in Moldova by claiming that Transnistrian residents are in danger because of Moldova's alleged refusal to engage in a settlement process in Transnistria. ISW suggested that the Kremlin may be turning to rhetorical narratives that appeal to a wider audience beyond the "Russkiy Mir"....

....MUCH MORE

On January 11 we saw "Russia may use Transnistria to block grain corridor from Ukraine - ISW" at Ukrinform.  

And "ISW: Kremlin appears to guide Moldova’s Transnistria moves, laying ground for false flag" at EuroMaidan Press.

From December 23's "Moldova: Something's Cooking":

....Here's that bit of land via BigThink's Strange Maps:

If interested see some of our other posts on Transnistria.

Transnistria: "Moldova’s Breakaway Region Appeals for Help From Russia"

The most interesting thing about what is going on in Transnistria is that both Russia and NATO+Ukraine seem to want conflict. 

Moldova is not a NATO mamber.

From Bloomberg, February 28, 8:12 AM EST:

Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria has called on Russia to step in and stop what it described as attempts by the government in Chisinau to bring the enclave back into its fold through economic pressure.

The self-proclaimed administration in Tiraspol adopted a declaration directed at Moscow, the United Nations and other international organizations, at a congress convened on Wednesday, denouncing recently introduced trade taxes by Moldova’s pro-European Union government....

....MORE

Some of our posts over the last few months after it became apparent that something was going on in Moldova, Transnistria and Ukraine:

• Moldova: Something's Cooking
• Russian Military Exercises In Transnistria
• Meanwhile, In Moldova...
• "Russia laying groundwork for a ‘false flag’ operation against Moldova in Transnistria"
• "Kremlin creates conditions to destabilise Moldova – ISW"
• The Russian Embassy in South Africa on Moldova and Transnistria
• War Drums Beating Faster For Moldova, Transnistria
• "Rumour that Transnistria will ask to join Russia is unconfirmed – Ukraine's Defence Intelligence"

Moldova: Something's Cooking

Some of the headlines at DuckDuckGo, December 23:

• Orthodox priests in Moldova rebel against Moscow ruleAFP on MSN.com|1 hour ago
• Moldova plans to escape Russia's grip by exiting Commonwealth, further isolating Putinessanews.com on MSN.com|1 day ago
• Ukraine and Moldova agree on joint control at seven checkpointsYAHOO!News|2 days ago
• Moldova reinforces air defense with French GM200 radar systemAeroTime|3 days ago
• The Pro-Kremlin, Far-Right Figure Vowing To Take Down Moldova's GovernmentRadio Free Europe/Radio Liberty|5 days ago

If gentle reader recalls, the tactical components of the RAND plan are:

 1. Arming Ukraine ;
 2. Increase support for jihadists in Syria;
 3. Promoting regime change in Belarus;
 4. Exploiting tensions in the South Caucasus;
 5. Reducing Russian influence in Central Asia;
 6. Rivaling the Russian presence in Transnistria.

....MUCH MORE

Previously:

February 13, 2023: "White House 'Deeply Concerned' About Putin's Reported Power Grab":

....Here's that bit of land via BigThink's Strange Maps:

And here is the relevant section of RAND's Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground, page 130 of the report (pp. 158 of the PDF)

Measure 6: Challenge Russian Presence in Moldova

Nestled between Romania and Ukraine with no seacoast of its own, Moldova, a former republic of the Soviet Union, is now an independent country. Transnistria is a Russian-speaking enclave within Moldova that currently hosts a Russian peacekeeping (some might say occupa- tion) force and army base. John Todd Stewart, who was U.S. ambassa- dor to Moldova from 1995 to 1998, described Moldova as “the Florida of the [Soviet Union], the republic with the most temperate climate, which was attractive to retirees. These people do not speak Romanian and have no connections with the area, period.”126 As the Soviet Union was collapsing in 1990, Transnistria—home to about a half-million Russophone residents today—broke away from Moldova.127

A brief conflict between pro-Transnistrian forces and the Moldovan police and military ended inconclusively.128 

Moldova never reasserted its control over the breakaway region, but no member of the United Nations— including Russia—recognized its existence either.129 

Therefore, Transnistria has existed in a sort of netherworld for the past several decades....

....MUCH MORE

February 19, 2023: “The Russian troops in Transnistria must be expelled.”—New Prime Minister of Moldova

February 25, 2023: Transnistria: "The largest illegal arms depot in Eastern Europe"

Ukrinform: Russia Carried Out The Drone Strike In Transnistria

Things are starting to get a bit confusing.

From Ukrinform, March 17:

Center for Countering Disinformation: Russia carried out provocation in Transnistria

Russia carried out a provocation in unrecognized Transnistria by attacking a military unit with a kamikaze drone.

The press service of the Center for Countering Disinformation at Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council said this in a Telegram post, Ukrinform reports.

"Russia carried out a provocation in Transnistria with a kamikaze drone attack on a military unit. The main logic of the Kremlin's actions is the information escalation of the situation, since the Russian Federation does not have a corridor to Transnistria to carry out military provocations," the center said....

....MORE

Daily Express USA had a picture:

And across the Dniester, from Radio Free Europe, March 17:

Man Detained For Setting Fire At Russian Embassy In Moldova  

Police in Moldova say a man threw Molotov cocktails at the Russian Embassy in the capital, Chisinau, while Russian voters were lining up outside the building on the presidential election day, March 17. As Moldovan officers were detaining the man, some of the voters scolded him and a woman kicked him. Authorities later identified him as a 54-year-old dual Moldovan-Russian citizen. Flames and rising smoke were seen across the embassy fence.

Casus Belli? Russia's Former Defense Minister "Sergei Shoigu says safety of Russians in Transnistria under threat, TASS reports"

Russia's been thinking of a third front since they had a first front (Crimea) and a second front (Donetsk). 

From France24, April 21:

⁠The ​safety of ​Russian citizens in Moldova's breakaway Transnistria ​region ‌is currently ⁠under threat, ‌Sergei Shoigu, secretary of Russia's Security ​Council, said on Tuesday. Speaking on FRANCE 24, Laurențiu Pleșca, Policy Fellow at the German Marshall Fund, explains that Russia is using the same playbook it used in eastern Ukraine and Donbas adding that "it's remarkable that Shoigu is not even trying to hide it". 

....MORE (video)  

Backing up a few days, Kyiv Post, April 18:

Budanov Says Russia Boosting Military Readiness in Transnistria Amid Strategic Fears

The Head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office warns that Moscow is reinforcing its limited contingent in the breakaway region to counter perceived threats from Kyiv.

From December 2025's Odesa At Risk: "Russian stuff blowing up: Russia looks to play its Transnistria card": 

As noted in 2024:

The typical sequence of events is for a country to claim their enemy is persecuting a minority within a territory, usually co-coreligionists or language-based, to set up a casus belli. Then skirmishes followed by warnings and finally full-scale hostilities.... 

NATO would love to have Russia extend itself further as proposed in the 2019 RAND Corporation report on how to bleed Russia dry militarily and perhaps more importantly, economically. From our February 6, 2022 post:

"The RAND Corporation Blueprint For Forcing Putin To Over-Extend Himself"

I hope that the U.S. or NATO or whoever commissioned this study didn't pay a lot for it, it's basically the strategy that Pope John Paul II, Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan came up with in the early 1980's although the details do differ. The tactical components of the RAND plan are:

 1. Arming Ukraine ;
 2. Increase support for jihadists in Syria;
 3. Promoting regime change in Belarus;
 4. Exploiting tensions in the South Caucasus;
 5. Reducing Russian influence in Central Asia;
 6. Rivaling the Russian presence in Transnistria.

....MUCH MORE

 Here's that bit of land via BigThink's Strange Maps:

And here is the relevant section of RAND's Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground, page 130 of the report (pp. 158 of the PDF)

A look at this map, by NPR's @mulletmapping, shows you this region would be relevant to the war in Ukraine:

-Not far from the Black Sea port of Odesa.
-Shares a 250 mile border with Ukraine
-Fighting could also imperil the north-south route from Kyiv to Odesa. pic.twitter.com/62AzdFlvqp

— Tim Mak (@timkmak) April 26, 2022

....MUCH MORE 

In February 2016 we posted a series of five headshots of defense ministers that had made the rounds on the internet the previous year, see if you can guess which one is Russian: 

(from left to right): Sweden (Karin Enstrom), Norway (Ine Eriksen Søreide), Russia ( Sergey Shoigu), 

Netherlands (Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert), Germany (Ursula von der Leyen)

 

"White House 'Deeply Concerned' About Putin's Reported Power Grab"

 From Newsweek, February 13:

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby on Monday said reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin is allegedly plotting a coup in Moldova are "deeply concerning."

Kirby made the remarks during a press briefing when asked about Moldovan President Maia Sandu's comments earlier in the day in which she accused Putin of wanting to overthrow her country's government.

According to Sandu, Putin is allegedly planning to use foreign saboteurs to destroy Moldova's leadership and stop her nation from joining the European Union. Sandu, who is an ally of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelesnky, also accused Putin of wanting to use Moldova in the war against Ukraine.

Kirby said that while the United States has not verified the coup reports, he believes Putin is capable of attempting such an act.

"Deeply concerning reports," Kirby said. "We absolutely stand with the Moldovan government and Moldovan people. We haven't seen independent confirmation, but it's certainly a page right out of Putin's playbook."....

....MUCH MORE

It is difficult to ascertain whether Putin is making a move or if the CIA is making a move.

In the 2019 RAND Corporation report, which we posted 2 1/2 weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine, we saw:

"The RAND Corporation Blueprint For Forcing Putin To Over-Extend Himself"

I hope that the U.S. or NATO or whoever commissioned this study didn't pay a lot for it, it's basically the strategy that Pope John Paul II, Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan came up with in the early 1980's although the details do differ. The tactical components of the RAND plan are:

 1. Arming Ukraine ;
 2. Increase support for jihadists in Syria;
 3. Promoting regime change in Belarus;
 4. Exploiting tensions in the South Caucasus;
 5. Reducing Russian influence in Central Asia;
 6. Rivaling the Russian presence in Transnistria.

....MUCH MORE

 Here's that bit of land via BigThink's Strange Maps:

And here is the relevant section of RAND's Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground, page 130 of the report (pp. 158 of the PDF)

Measure 6: Challenge Russian Presence in Moldova

Nestled between Romania and Ukraine with no seacoast of its own, Moldova, a former republic of the Soviet Union, is now an independent country. Transnistria is a Russian-speaking enclave within Moldova that currently hosts a Russian peacekeeping (some might say occupa- tion) force and army base. John Todd Stewart, who was U.S. ambassa- dor to Moldova from 1995 to 1998, described Moldova as “the Florida of the [Soviet Union], the republic with the most temperate climate, which was attractive to retirees. These people do not speak Romanian and have no connections with the area, period.”126 As the Soviet Union was collapsing in 1990, Transnistria—home to about a half-million Russophone residents today—broke away from Moldova.127

A brief conflict between pro-Transnistrian forces and the Moldovan police and military ended inconclusively.128 

Moldova never reasserted its control over the breakaway region, but no member of the United Nations— including Russia—recognized its existence either.129 

Therefore, Transnistria has existed in a sort of netherworld for the past several decades....

....MUCH MORE

Transnistria: "The largest illegal arms depot in Eastern Europe"

From the Czech environmental NGO, Arnika:

A possible explosion of huge deposits of military material would cause an ecological and human disaster.

The military depot in Cobasna was created in the 1940s in the Ribnita district, then the Moldavian SSR, now the separatist region of Transnistria.

During the Soviet period, the artillery ammunition depot no. 1411 was a strategic arsenal of the western military district of the USSR. Most of the ammunition was stored here after the withdrawal of Soviet troops from the former German Democratic Republic (GDR), Czechoslovakia, and other countries in the former Warsaw Pact.

Currently, about 20,000 tons of weapons and ammunition are stored at this warehouse, of which 57% are obsolete and cannot be used or transported, and access to the area is strictly prohibited, being controlled by Transnistrian and Russian peacekeeping forces. A possible explosion of these deposits, which cannot be transported, would cause an ecological and human disaster.

The ammunition depot in Cobasna presents a serious technogenic and ecological danger not only for the Republic of Moldova but also for Ukraine. In 2005, the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Moldova published an expert report on the threats posed by the accumulation of weapons in the Transnistrian region.

A possible explosion of the military depot in Cobasna can be compared to the detonation of a 10-kiloton nuclear bomb, which was dropped on the city of Hiroshima in 1945.

After the explosion, a crater with a radius of 1.5 kilometers and a depth of 75 meters would form. However, given that Cobasna is located in a rural area, the range of the explosion can reach 40-50 kilometers. Therefore, the effects of the explosion can be compared to the damage caused by an earthquake of 7-7.5 degrees....

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 Recently on Transnistria: 

“The Russian troops in Transnistria must be expelled.”—New Prime Minister of Moldova

"White House 'Deeply Concerned' About Putin's Reported Power Grab"

"EU Demands Russian Troop Withdrawal From Belarus, Georgia, Armenia and Transnistria in Ukraine Peace Framework"

 I don't think Russia is going to agree to that.

But maybe the EU is adopting Trumpian negotiating tactics: Ask for the moon and stars and accept the moon as an improvement on your current position.

The other interpretation is that the EU doesn't actually want peace in Ukraine which will lead to a lot more blood and treasure needed to feed the beast. 

From the Kyiv Post, February 19:

An internal EU paper circulated by Kaja Kallas calls for a ban on Russian military deployments in Belarus, Georgia, Armenia and Moldova’s Transnistria as part of any comprehensive Ukraine settlement. 

Content

• Ban on Russian military presence
• EU seeks seat at the table
• Reparations and accountability
• Ukraine’s EU path

The European Union is demanding that Russia withdraw its troops not only from Ukraine but also from Belarus, Georgia, Armenia and Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region as part of any comprehensive peace deal.

The proposal is outlined in an internal discussion paper distributed to EU member states by the bloc’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, and seen by RFE/RL. The document is set to be discussed by EU ambassadors on Tuesday, Feb. 17, and may be debated further by foreign ministers on Feb. 23. 

The document sets out what Brussels believes Moscow must concede in ongoing US-mediated negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.

Ban on Russian military presence
The paper calls for a “ban of Russian military presence and deployments in Belarus, Ukraine, Republic of Moldova, Georgia and Armenia,” as well as the removal of any nuclear weapons from Belarus.

Russian forces have long been stationed in Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, in Moldova’s Transnistria, at bases in Armenia, and in Belarus, which served as a launchpad for the 2022 invasion.

The document argues that if Ukraine is asked in negotiations to limit troop levels or demilitarize certain areas, Russia should face comparable obligations.

It also rejects any “de jure” recognition of occupied Ukrainian territories and calls for their demilitarization.

EU seeks seat at the table
Neither the EU nor its member states are formally represented in the US-led negotiations....

....MUCH MORE 

The EU could have bought a seat at the table had they supplied Ukraine back in 2022. Or 2023. Or 2024. 

Instead we got the half-a-loaf/permawar approach we were decrying as early as April 2022. Here are a couple posts from those days:

May 25, 2022
Maybe We Should Just Declare War On Russia And Take Their Stuff: Zoltan Pozsar on Russia As A "Global Systemically Important Bank" Of Commodities

None of the electorate in the NATO countries voted for another of these inconclusive, forever wars, so profitable for a select few and so costly in life and treasure for regular people. Surely no one in the developing nations signed on to pay for sanctions with their food budget. It is time to figure out a) What our goals are and b) What the hell we are doing, period and in furtherance of those goals. This isn't some game of RISK with let's try this, or let's try that and no consequences at the end of the night. Since the Maidan coup in 2014 the West has had eight years to plan for this.

Do it or don't do it; because trying to finesse a halfway reaction is nuts.

As the philosopher asked the generals and armaments producers some time ago: 

"When was the last time you b****es won a war?"

August 1, 2022
"No holidays for Ukraine: Financial needs increase"

The EU has to either go all-in or call a halt to what they are currently doing.

This halfway stuff does not work for anyone but the arms merchants and is just plain evil in terms of lives lost and livelihoods ruined. As the BSD's used to say: "Go big or go home."....

December 21, 2023
Industrial Disease: "The U.S. Can Afford a Bigger Military. We Just Can’t Build It"
For at least six months after it became apparent the Western strategy for Ukraine was to dribble enough armaments into the battle to slow the Russian takeover of the eastern third of Ukraine, but not enough for Ukraine to win, we were posting on this weird approach to war....

 

And the inevitable result:

June 5, 2023
Oh My God, What Are The Ukrainian Generals Doing?
They are ordering their men to attack defense-in-depth without air cover and 1/10th the artillery the troops need.... 

*We've mentioned the RAND study a few times including before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Here's March 25, 2022: 

The U.S. Is Implementing The RAND Corporation Strategy To Cripple Russia

First up, a refresher, from February 8, 2022 (pre-invasion): 

The RAND Corporation Blueprint For Forcing Putin To Over-Extend Himself

I hope that the U.S. or NATO or whoever commissioned this study didn't pay a lot for it, it's basically the strategy that Pope John Paul II, Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan came up with in the early 1980's although the details do differ. The tactical components of the RAND plan are:

 1. Arming Ukraine ;
 2. Increase support for jihadists in Syria;
 3. Promoting regime change in Belarus;
 4. Exploiting tensions in the South Caucasus;
 5. Reducing Russian influence in Central Asia;
 6. Rivaling the Russian presence in Transnistria.

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The study is from 2019, its basic idea is to get Russia to overextend itself both militarily and more especially financially. 

On January 12, 2022 Victoria Nuland showed this approach is top-of-mind in the Biden Administration. From Interfax Ukraine:

Nuland: I'm going to let Russians speak for themselves how long they can financially back placement of troops near Ukraine

U.S. Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland did not make assumptions about how long the Russian Federation can afford to keep a large grouping of forces near Ukraine.

"I am going to let the Russians speak for themselves," she said, answering a question at a State Department briefing about "how long you think Russia can financially back the placement of troops along the Russia-Ukrainian border."

Nuland also said the transfer of a large group of forces to the border with Ukraine was not a cheap operation.

"These kind of deployments, hundred thousand troops out of barracks and on the Ukrainian border are extremely expensive, as is the deployment of this kind of weaponry in the cold winter," she said.

The U.S. goal is not peace in Ukraine.

The U.S. goal is regime change in Moscow, and in furtherance of that objective the U.S. is ready to fight to the last Ukrainian.

The Russian Embassy in South Africa on Moldova and Transnistria

I have no idea where the truth lies in this situation. 

However it does seem to be hotting up, as the saying goes.

Media: London has suggested that NATO allies should consider sending the bloc’s expeditionary force to Ukraine, as well as to establish a no-fly zone over Kiev-controlled territories, due to the difficult situation on the battlefield for the Kiev regime.

➡️According to the media… pic.twitter.com/DoY4cZJhzz

— Russian Embassy in South Africa 🇷🇺 (@EmbassyofRussia) February 3, 2024

Media: London has suggested that NATO allies should consider sending the bloc’s expeditionary force to Ukraine, as well as to establish a no-fly zone over Kiev-controlled territories, due to the difficult situation on the battlefield for the Kiev regime.

➡️According to the media sources, London plans to covertly move a large number of highly maneuverable NATO forces from border regions of Poland and Romania to take up defensive positions along the Dnieper’s right bank. At the same time Moldavia and Romania may deliver a joint pre-emptive strike on the region of Transnistria.

❗️The British plan provides for deployment of NATO contingents and armies of certain bloc members in Norway and Finland to stretch Russia’s forces, while targeting strategic infrastructure facilities in the north of Russia.

✖️Implementation of such a plan would bring NATO into a direct military clash with Russia. 

☝️Somebody is desperately trying to drag the world into a new global conflict. How ordinary people in Europe would assess the dangerous ideas leading to WWIII which will have no winners? 

Previously:

December 23: "Moldova: Something's Cooking"  

January 14:"Russia laying groundwork for a ‘false flag’ operation against Moldova in Transnistria" 

January 30: "Kremlin creates conditions to destabilise Moldova – ISW"

There's more but at the moment the question is: Why did the U.S. State Department's #2 just fly in to Ukraine? 

From the Kyiv Post, February 1:

ANALYSIS: Is the GLSDB One of Nuland’s Promised ‘Nice Surprises’ for Putin?
In front of St Michael’s cathedral in Kyiv on Wednesday acting US Deputy Secretary of State, Victoria Nuland, said President Putin was going to get some nice surprises – this could be one of them.

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"Rumour that Transnistria will ask to join Russia is unconfirmed – Ukraine's Defence Intelligence"

From Ukrainska Pravda, February 22:

Ukraine's Defence Intelligence has stated that deputies from the unrecognised republic of Transnistria have no plans to ask Russian President Vladimir Putin about the accession of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic to Russia at an upcoming congress.

Source: Andrii Yusov, spokesman for Ukraine's Defence Intelligence, in a comment for Ukrainska Pravda; Ukrainska Pravda source

Quote from Yusov: "According to our information, the claim that on 28 February the Transnistrian ‘authorities’ are going to ask Russia about joining its territory is currently unconfirmed."....

....MORE

February 16:

War Drums Beating Faster For Moldova, Transnistria

 

"FT: Moldova to sign security pact with EU next week"

From EuroMaidan Press May 14:

Moldova, amidst Russian warnings, will sign a security pact with the EU to enhance military exercises, intelligence sharing, and weapons procurement, FT says.  

Moldova is poised to sign a significant security pact with the European Union next week, the Financial Times reports. Under the proposal seen by FT, Moldova will enhance intelligence sharing, participate in joint military exercises, and join the EU’s collective weapons procurement efforts.

This move comes as Chișinău defies Moscow’s warnings that closer Western integration could expose it to risks akin to those faced by Ukraine. This development represents a profound shift in Moldova’s defense strategy, challenging its constitutional commitment to “permanent neutrality” and its stance of not joining NATO.

Situated between Ukraine and NATO/EU member Romania, Moldova, a former USSR state, has pivoted westward in response to Russia’s invasion of its neighbor, advancing its bid to join the EU and quickly reforming its judicial, economic, and security frameworks. This shift is complicated by the presence of Russian-controlled Transnistria, where Russian troops have been stationed since the 1990s, and Gagauzia, a region with pro-Russian sentiments....

Map of Moldova showing the zones of the frozen military conflict with
Russia in Transnistria and a formally resolved conflict in Gagauzia.

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If interested see also CEPA: "EU in Tug-of-War for Georgia and Moldova." and the AP via MarketWatch May 13: "‘Russia-style’ law on foreign influence sparks massive protests in Georgia capital Tbilisi" and WorldCrunch May 2: "A New Ukraine? How Georgia Has Been Swept Into Russia-Europe Power Struggle"

“The Russian troops in Transnistria must be expelled.”—New Prime Minister of Moldova

From Visegrad24, half-an-hour ago:

BREAKING:

“The Russian troops in Transnistria must be expelled.”

- The new Prime Minister of Moldova, Dorin Recean.

Senior commanders of the Ukrainian Army have previously offered to help Moldova rid itself of the Russian soldiers in Transnistria. pic.twitter.com/VAi0y5zper

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) February 19, 2023

From February 13's "White House 'Deeply Concerned' About Putin's Reported Power Grab":

....Here's that bit of land via BigThink's Strange Maps:

And here is the relevant section of RAND's Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground, page 130 of the report (pp. 158 of the PDF).... 

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"Russia laying groundwork for a ‘false flag’ operation against Moldova in Transnistria"

The typical sequence of events is for a country to claim their enemy is persecuting a minority within a territory, usually co-coreligionists or language-based, to set up a casus belli. Then skirmishes followed by warnings and finally full-scale hostilities.

From The New Voice of Ukraine, January 11:

Russia is likely laying the informational groundwork to use the occupied area of Transistria in a possible ‘false flag’ operation against Moldova, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its Jan. 10 report.

The Kremlin has directed authorities in the separatist Moldovan region to prepare the information campaign as part of its broader efforts to destabilize Moldova.

Transnistria’s so-called “State Security Ministry” reported an “incident involving the use of firearms” on Jan. 7, which resulted in “two Transnistrian citizens being moved to Ukrainian territory”....

....MUCH MORE

Previously:
December 23: "Moldova: Something's Cooking" 

December 24: Russian Military Exercises In Transnistria

Russian Military Exercises In Transnistria

Following on yesterday's "Moldova: Something's Cooking"

From Ukrainska Pravda, December 23:

Russian troops in so-called Transnistria conduct unauthorised exercises 

Shots were heard in Transnistria, a non-recognised state that is officially considered a part of Moldova, on 22 December; it turned out that soldiers from the Russian forces stationed there were the ones shooting.

Source: Newsmaker, a Moldovan news outlet

Details: The shots were heard near the villages of Gîsca and Corjova on the left bank of the Dnister as part of unauthorised exercises. Sergiu Golovaci, Head of the Moldovan delegation to the Joint Control Commission (JCC), confirmed to Zona de Securitate that the shooting had lasted about 40 minutes....

....MORE

And from LeMonde a couple hours ago:

Maia Sandu, Moldova's pro-EU president, will seek second term
In a post on Facebook, Sandu said she would run in the 2024 election.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu on Sunday, December 24, said she would seek a second term next year as she looks to steer the country to EU membership. "We still have important steps to take and I promise to continue if you give me your confidence for a new term in 2024," she said in a post on Facebook.

She also asked parliament to "initiate the organization of a referendum [on EU membership] next autumn, in which the voice of the citizens would be decisive."....

....MORE

Transnistria: How To Do Journalism

From Kyiv's Euromaidan Press, January 12:

Retraction and correction
We messed up. Apologies.  

On 12 January 2026, Euromaidan Press published a frontline report titled "Ukraine and Moldova trap Russia's hidden army with New Year's midnight move," based on analysis from the video channel Reporting from Ukraine.

We have removed this article after determining that it significantly overstated what actually occurred.

What the article claimed: That Ukraine and Moldova enacted a "full blockade" against Transnistria starting at midnight on 1 January 2026, "marking a clear policy shift" that closed "every supply line" into the region.

What actually happened: The Russian gas transit through Ukraine ended on 1 January when the transit contract expired — a development that had been publicly anticipated for months. Ukraine's border with Transnistria has been closed since February 2022. Moldova's customs duties on Transnistrian goods have been in place since 2024. No new "coordinated blockade" was announced or enacted by either government....

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Euromaidan Press front page 

Flashpoint: "The Romanian President proposed a plan for the annexation of Transnistria to Moldova"

First up, the headliner lifted in toto from Russia's OreandaNews, September 30: 

Romanian President Nicusor Dan proposed to annex the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) to Moldova on the rights of autonomy. His statement was made during an interview with Euronews.

"In my opinion, this can be done with Transnistria with the status of Gagauzia, with relative autonomy within the Republic of Moldova," Dan said.

According to him, the region's participation in European integration, which is aimed at by the Moldovan leadership, is possible even taking into account its special status.

Parliamentary elections were held in Moldova on September 28. President Maia Sandu's Action and Solidarity (PAS) party was able to retain the majority of seats in parliament following the election results. A government will also be formed based on the results of the vote. 

Here's the interview from from EuroNews Romania, Sept. 30/Oct. 1:

EXCLUSIV. Nicușor Dan, despre doborârea dronelor, aderarea Moldovei la UE și anularea alegerilor: „Bănuim că au fost 20 de milioane. Noi avem dovadă un milion”

And via Google Translate:

EXCLUSIVE. Nicușor Dan, about the downing of drones, Moldova's accession to the EU and the annulment of the elections: "We suspect there were 20 million. We have proof of one million"

"US troops in Moldova in emerging Plan B for Ukraine"

 From Asia Times, April 5:

Moldova could be envisioned as staging area for US and NATO forces in the event of a Russian victory and break up of Ukraine 

Big trouble may be brewing in little Moldova, which is starting to look like a staging area for the European Union to offset an emerging Russian victory in Ukraine. Whether such a plan, if attempted, would succeed is not clear. But Moldova is not the most stable country in the world with the nation split between pro-EU and pro-Russian elements.

US troops are now in Moldova with Romanians, ostensibly for a military exercise called JCET 2024 (Joint Command Exchange Training). The exercise started on April 1 and will continue until April 19.

According to a Moldovan Ministry of Defense statement, “The aim of the exercise is joint training and exchange of experience between Moldovan, Romanian and American special forces, as well as to increase the level of interoperability between the participating contingents. This year’s event will also be attended by representatives of the [Moldovan] State Protection and Security Service and the Pantera Special Forces.” 

These exercises are not new but they taken on new urgency now because of the developing situation in neighboring Ukraine.

The US sponsors what it calls the Moldova-US Strategic Dialogue in Chisinau, Moldova’s capital. The dialogue focuses on areas of

cooperation including justice sector and anti-corruption reforms, human rights, promoting a pluralistic media environment and rights-respecting media policies to counter disinformation, energy diversification and resilience, defense modernization and transformation, civil protection, border management, cyber security, countering cross-border threats, combating illicit trafficking in weapons and ammunition, countering proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and related materials, humanely addressing the needs of refugees and expanding people-to-people ties.

The United States has made nearly US$320 million available in new economic, security, and humanitarian assistance to help Moldova. This assistance includes $30 million in non-reimbursable budget support disbursed in December 2022 for electricity purchases. According to the US State Department:....

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Recently:

• Transnistria: "Moldova’s Breakaway Region Appeals for Help From Russia"
• Ukrinform: Russia Carried Out The Drone Strike In Transnistria
• "Military exercises with the participation of the USA and Romania started in Moldova"