The typical sequence of events is for a country to claim their enemy is persecuting a minority within a territory, usually co-coreligionists or language-based, to set up a casus belli. Then skirmishes followed by warnings and finally full-scale hostilities.
From The New Voice of Ukraine, January 11:
Russia is likely laying the informational groundwork to use the occupied area of Transistria in a possible ‘false flag’ operation against Moldova, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its Jan. 10 report.
The Kremlin has directed authorities in the separatist Moldovan region to prepare the information campaign as part of its broader efforts to destabilize Moldova.
Transnistria’s so-called “State Security Ministry” reported an “incident involving the use of firearms” on Jan. 7, which resulted in “two Transnistrian citizens being moved to Ukrainian territory”....
....MUCH MORE
Previously:
December 23: "Moldova: Something's Cooking"
December 24: Russian Military Exercises In Transnistria
