War Drums Beating Faster For Moldova, Transnistria

Some of the recent stories: 

February 15, The Telegraph: "Moscow laying groundwork for Moldova invasion, warn experts":

The Kremlin is using “very similar” rhetoric towards Moldova as it did before its invasion of Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War reported.

The think tanks says Moscow’s methods are “likely” designed “to set conditions to justify possible future Russian escalation against Moldova”.

Addressing the Transnistria conflict, yesterday, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, made a series of allegations that mirror those directed at Ukraine ahead of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its full-scale invasion.

His allegations included falsely claiming that the US and EU control the Moldovan government. He also claimed that there are about 200,000 Russian citizens in Transnistria, and that Russia is “concerned about their fate” and “will not allow them to become victims of another Western adventure.” 

The Kremlin has used the idea of protecting its “compatriots abroad” to justify Russian occupation of Transnistria since 1992 as well as its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the ISW reported. 

“The timing of a possible Russian hybrid operation in Moldova is unclear, but the Kremlin is setting informational conditions to make it possible soon,” it said.

Picked up and amplified by EuroMaidan Press: "Putin dusts off Ukraine playbook for Moldova" The Odessa Journal "ISW: Kremlin conducts information operations in Moldova, echoing tactics preceding Ukrainian invasions" Britain's The Standard and The Express.

Pravda Ukraine, February 13: Moldovan Defence Ministry explains why Russian drone was not detected in time 

Moldova's Infotag News Agency, February 16: MOLDOVAN POLICE DETAIN FORMER TRANSNISTRIAN LAW ENFORCER FOR ORGANIZATION OF ILLEGAL MIGRATION 

Finally and perhaps more importantly, at Balkan Insight, February 16:

Russia Threatens Moldova With ‘Military Scenario’ Over Transnistria 

Top Kremlin officials have warned Moldova that any attempt to resolve the Transnistria issue by force will be be considered 'an attack on Russia'.

As noted January 30:
"Kremlin creates conditions to destabilise Moldova – ISW"

If your only source of information [for the first 18 months] following Russia's invasion of Ukraine had been the Institute for the Study of War you could be forgiven for thinking that Ukrainian troops had taken Moscow and were marching on the Russian far east, with Yakutsk and then Magadan preparing to surrender to the blue and yellow.

The ISW is a Kagan family enterprise with Kimberly Kagan at its head and her husband Frederick Kagan writing daily reports. The other Kagan brother is Robert, Mr. Victoria Nuland.

They appear to be beating the war drums to set up a second front in the Russo-Ukraine war in Transnistria, the Russian-backed breakaway bit of Moldova....

And January 14:
"Russia laying groundwork for a ‘false flag’ operation against Moldova in Transnistria"

The typical sequence of events is for a country to claim their enemy is persecuting a minority within a territory, usually co-coreligionists or language-based, to set up a casus belli. Then skirmishes followed by warnings and finally full-scale hostilities....

So why do we think hostilities are coming? Russia would love to have the western arm of a pincer squeezing Odesa and the Black Sea coast of Ukraine:

A look at this map, by NPR's @mulletmapping, shows you this region would be relevant to the war in Ukraine:

-Not far from the Black Sea port of Odesa.
-Shares a 250 mile border with Ukraine
-Fighting could also imperil the north-south route from Kyiv to Odesa. pic.twitter.com/62AzdFlvqp

— Tim Mak (@timkmak) April 26, 2022

While NATO would love to have Russia extend itself further as proposed in the 2019 RAND Corporation report on how to bleed Russia dry militarily and perhaps more importantly, economically. From our February 6, 2022 post:

"The RAND Corporation Blueprint For Forcing Putin To Over-Extend Himself"

I hope that the U.S. or NATO or whoever commissioned this study didn't pay a lot for it, it's basically the strategy that Pope John Paul II, Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan came up with in the early 1980's although the details do differ. The tactical components of the RAND plan are:

 1. Arming Ukraine ;
 2. Increase support for jihadists in Syria;
 3. Promoting regime change in Belarus;
 4. Exploiting tensions in the South Caucasus;
 5. Reducing Russian influence in Central Asia;
 6. Rivaling the Russian presence in Transnistria.

....MUCH MORE

 Here's that bit of land via BigThink's Strange Maps:

And here is the relevant section of RAND's Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground, page 130 of the report (pp. 158 of the PDF)

Measure 6: Challenge Russian Presence in Moldova

Nestled between Romania and Ukraine with no seacoast of its own, Moldova, a former republic of the Soviet Union, is now an independent country. Transnistria is a Russian-speaking enclave within Moldova that currently hosts a Russian peacekeeping (some might say occupa- tion) force and army base. John Todd Stewart, who was U.S. ambassa- dor to Moldova from 1995 to 1998, described Moldova as “the Florida of the [Soviet Union], the republic with the most temperate climate, which was attractive to retirees. These people do not speak Romanian and have no connections with the area, period.”126 As the Soviet Union was collapsing in 1990, Transnistria—home to about a half-million Russophone residents today—broke away from Moldova.127

A brief conflict between pro-Transnistrian forces and the Moldovan police and military ended inconclusively.128 

Moldova never reasserted its control over the breakaway region, but no member of the United Nations— including Russia—recognized its existence either.129 

Therefore, Transnistria has existed in a sort of netherworld for the past several decades....

....MUCH MORE