From Marc to Market:
Overview: The dollar's surge in the first part of the week has given way to consolidation. The US dollar is sporting a softer profile against most of the G10 currencies. The Dollar Index is threatening to snap a three advance. Sterling is a notable exception following the weakest retail sales report since 2021. Most emerging market currencies, including China, Taiwan, and Mexico are slightly firmer. US President Biden is expected to sign a bill today that avoids a partial government shutdown but only extended the spending authorization until March 1 and March 8.
The equity rally in North America yesterday, which saw the NASDAQ 100 set a new record-high seemed to help bourses in Asia Pacific today, led by a 2.6% jump in Taiwan. China's stocks were the main exception and reports suggest one of the largest brokers curbed short sales by some investors. Europe's Stoxx 600 is posting a small increase after rising by almost 0.6% yesterday. US index futures point to a firm open. The 10-year US Treasury is flat near 4.14%, a 20 bp increase this week. European bond yields are 2-5 bp lower, with the periphery outperforming the core. The US two-year yield is also flattish today and up about 20 bp this week. Gold tested support at $2000 in the middle of the week and is now near $2030. Resistance is seen near the midweek hike around $2035. March WTI has been pushed above $74 to trade at its best level since Monday when it approached the 200-day moving average slightly above $75. Note that the despite the cold spell in much of the US, March natgas has fallen nearly 9.5% Europe's benchmark is off nearly 8.8% this week....
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