Thursday, September 4, 2025

Capital Markets: "US Jobs Data Key to Near-Term Greenback's Fate"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex: 

Overview: The US dollar is firm against the G10 currencies today but is mostly trading inside yesterday's ranges. After yesterday's disappointing JOLTS report attention turns to the ADP estimate today, ahead of tomorrow's BLS report. The lack of follow-through selling after yesterday's losses may be encouraging some short-term momentum traders to move to the sidelines. The greenback is also mostly higher against emerging market currencies, though a few Asia Pacific currencies bucking the move, including a small gain for the Chinese yuan. 

The pullback in yields seen yesterday is continuing today. Steady demand at Japan's 30-year bond auction helped JGBs rally. European benchmark yields are off 3-5 bp with spreads over Germany narrowing slightly, including France. The 10-year US Treasury yield has slipped below 4.20%. Equities, following the gains in the S&P and Nasdaq yesterday, are mostly higher. The notable exception in China and Hong Kong, following reports that suggested Beijing officials are considering measure to cool the recent rally. Europe's Stoxx 600 is building on yesterday's 0.65% recovery after Tuesday's 1.5% slide. US index futures are trading with a firmer bias, as well. After surging to a record $3578.5 yesterday, profit-taking sent gold down a little through $3512 today before buyers re-emerged. October WTI is extending its pullback after briefly trading above $66 on Tuesday. It fell to almost $63.70 yesterday and nearly $63.00 today. 

USD: The disappointing July JOLTS report pushed what was an offered Dollar Index lower....

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