Tuesday, September 23, 2025

New Chicago Fed Unemployment Reporting Tool Increases Frequency

Can the dream of corporations shunning quarterly statements and going directly to daily profit and loss reporting be far behind?

From Reuters via MSN, September 23: 

Chicago Fed releases interim unemployment estimate, with September at 4.3% 

The Chicago Federal Reserve said on Tuesday it had combined government and private data into a new estimate of the unemployment rate that would give policymakers faster-moving, twice monthly updates of a statistic central to the central bank's current interest rate debate.

The new "real-time" set of labor market statistics, relying on the government's Current Population Survey along with data from sources including payroll processor ADP, online job site Indeed, and Google, projects the unemployment rate most likely stayed stable in September at 4.3%.

The hiring rate for unemployed workers increased slightly, a bank press release said, but that was offset by a rise in layoffs and other job separations. 

The estimate comes nearly two weeks before the next employment report on October 3, covering payroll job growth and the jobless rate for September.

While Fed officials study an array of indicators to gauge the health of the labor market, the unemployment rate is paramount. Under the current data release timetable, Fed officials would receive the September official unemployment rate only before their next policy meeting at the end of October. The Chicago data would now supplement that with an early estimate of the October jobless rate, and possibly show whether the labor market was weakening or had stayed stable, a central issue in any decision to further cut interest rates....

....MUCH MORE