From Reason Magazine, September 18 (October 2025 edition):
Fewer than 35 years after escaping the yoke of Soviet-style central planning, Poland has become a legitimate global powerhouse.
Looking back on his career as one of Poland's most prominent economists and political leaders, Leszek Balcerowicz offered a succinct lesson for policymakers everywhere.
"Most problems are the result of bad politics," he told The Wall Street Journal in 2012. Democratic systems are beset by interest groups trying to expand state power for financial and ideological reasons, he explained. "Even if they are angels in the government, which is not the case, if there is not a counterbalance in the form of proponents of limited government, then there will be a shift toward more statism and ultimately into stagnation and crisis."
Balcerowicz's guidance as prime minister helped pull Poland out of the stagnation and crisis of communism after 1989. Two decades after he pioneered a "shock therapy" approach to liberalizing and privatizing the country's economy, Poland managed to be the only country in Europe that avoided a recession during the 2008–2009 economic crisis.
Today, his wisdom is undeniable. This year, Poland will become the world's 20th largest economy, surpassing Switzerland in the World Bank's and the International Monetary Fund's latest rankings, which are based on national gross domestic product (GDP). Fewer than 35 years after escaping the yoke of Soviet-style central planning, Poland doesn't just have the small distinction of having the most successful economy to emerge from behind the Iron Curtain—it has become a legitimate global powerhouse.
The blunt measure of total GDP might actually undersell how remarkable Poland's transformation has been. A better metric is GDP per capita, which measures the economic output per person. According to World Bank data from 2023 (which are adjusted for inflation and expressed in constant 2021 dollars), Poland's GDP per capita was about $13,000 as it entered its capitalist era in 1990. By 2023, it was $44,400.
While that still lags behind the European Union (E.U.) average of $54,400, Poland has closed the gap with stunning speed. In 1990, Poland's per capita GDP was just 38 percent of the E.U. average. By 2000, it was 46 percent. By 2010, it was 60 percent. And by 2023, the most recent year for which the World Bank provides data, it was 82 percent.
That's a remarkable amount of catching up in little more than one generation. The trend seems likely to continue, as Poland's economy posted nearly 3 percent growth in 2024 while the E.U. as a whole staggered along at just 1 percent....
....MUCH MORE
"How much do demographics really matter?"
Demographics are easy. Figuring out bets based on demographics is hard.
Europe is especially interesting, we've mentioned the short Sweden/long Poland or Czechia pair trade a couple times....
Today's factoids come from the Wall Street Journal's Mike Bird:
Looking at long-run growth series for Eastern European success stories is awesome. Poland ended 2018 about as income-rich as France was in 1985. Czechia is where France was in 2004, richer than Spain now. Estonian GDP per cap was 12% of Portugal's level in 1993, now all but even. pic.twitter.com/u4zJsObo6x— Mike Bird (@Birdyword) July 25, 2019
...MORESee:
2012
Repost--I Bet Poland is Glad it Hasn't Adopted the Euro
In his new book "Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles" Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging market equities and global macro at Morgan Stanley calls Poland and the Czech Republic the "sweet spots" in Europe.2017
As members of the EU who have not adopted the euro they have monetary flexibility that other EU members would kill for.
Although scheduled to begin using the euro in 2015 Poland's bankers have not expressed any great urgency about getting there....
Migrant Venture Capitalists Flood Eastern Europe
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Old School Polish Beer Wars
