This is what we were referring to introducing August 6's "Blackstone prepares portfolio companies for IPOs":
One of the reasons markets trend higher is a lack of new shares coming on to the market.
Over the last few months the IPO window has been opening and the offerings absorb buying power that would otherwise go into issues already trading.
See also: supply/demand.
The Wall Street marketeers are nothing if not opportunistic.
And depending on how much stuff they are primping, packaging, and pushing, this is why stock offerings tend to mark the short/intermediate-term tops in markets.
Just something to be aware of, not a hard and fast rule.
From See It Market, September 16:
- Q3 2025 IPO filings have reached 104 with two weeks left in the quarter, making it the strongest quarter since Q1 2022
- After six large public offerings hit the tape last week (KLAR, FIGR, LGN, VIA, GEMI, BRCB), all eyes are on expected debuts from StubHub and Netskope this week
- An anticipated Fed rate cut on Wednesday could fuel the fire of public debuts even more as we head into Q4 and 2026
Last week’s barrage of IPO activity continues this week with expected debuts from Stubhub and Netskope.
According to our IPO data, licensed from IPOScoop, six companies IPO’d last week, kicking off with the long-awaited debut from Swedish payments company Klarna (KLAR) on Wednesday. That was followed by stablecoin issuer Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) on Thursday, and the foursome of HVAC company Legence Corp (LGN), transit tech software company Via Transportation (VIA), Winklevoss twin cryptocurrency exchange Gemini Space Station (GEMI) and coffee chain Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) on Friday.1
This brought the total number of Q3 IPO announcements to 104, making it the strongest quarter since Q1 2022.
The Promise of Rate Cuts and Strong Stock Market Returns Fueling 2025 IPO ActivityThe dryspell in IPO activity since the 2021 boom largely had to do with higher interest rates that made borrowing capital more costly, and the availability of private-market funding. Some well-known unicorns such as OpenAI and SpaceX have benefited from those massive private inflows, making a public debut less necessary.
Because of these two factors, as well as uncertain macro conditions, many companies that debuted last week ended up staying private longer than anticipated. In fact, there have been whispers since 2021 that Klarna was looking to go public, their most recent delay in April 2025 was due to tariff risk uncertainty.2
Now these names have grown more established and are able to raise larger amounts of money, a notable tailwind. And despite the remaining headwinds, which includes uncertainty around US trade policy, a waning labor market, and softening consumer sentiment, the very high probability of Fed rate cuts paired with a stock market hovering at record highs has fueled interest in new issues.
It also helps that those names that have debuted this year have done, on-average, very well. The same can’t necessarily be said about those IPOs that came out in 2023 and 2024. Standouts this year include Coreweave (up 200% YTD), Circle Internet (up 57% YTD). And while many names such as Figma and Bullish are down from their initial pop, they remain well-above where they were initially priced, 60% and 40%, respectively. The Renaissance IPO ETF has outperformed the Nasdaq since its April 8 lows. Year-to-date it is up roughly 18.2% vs. the Nasdaq’s 16.8% gain....
....MUCH MORE
Another reason that companies are staying private longer is that venture capitalists have figured out that the longer they hold private companies off the market the more corporate growth they can claim as rightfully theirs. A couple related self referential notes:
December 2014 - Barron's Cover: Tech Stocks--The Bubble Is In the Private Market
There are two things that have changed over the last couple decades in valuing soon-to-be-public companies:
1) Long gestations to accrue every bit of hyper-growth from successful business to the private owners.
2) Late round valuation bumpers, a tactic we first saw in Kleiner, Perkins deals, note below...
*****
As related in another context:
I'm reminded of a situation I watched back in the day.
A trader sold a position to another firm a few minutes before a trading halt. The news was negative.
The buyer D.K.'ed (Don't Know) the trade, meaning we'd still own the position, at which point the head of the firm got on the phone and told his counterpart "I don't want the shit, whyd'ya you think I sold it to you?"
