It would be nice to catch the exact top, to bookend March 20's "It's Time To Buy Some Stocks" but getting lucky twice in one move is a longshot. Here's a line from Warren Buffet in December 31, 2016's "A Quick Victory Lap (and some wisdom from Warren Buffett) NVDA":
...from his letter to shareholders, 1985:In January 2018 it was the Great Cobalt Trade of '17:
Our gain in net worth during the year was $613.6 million, or 48.2%. It is fitting that the visit of Halley’s Comet coincided with this percentage gain: neither will be seen again in my lifetime. Our gain in per-share book value over the last twenty- one years (that is, since present management took over) has been from $19.46 to $1643.71, or 23.2% compounded annually, another percentage that will not be repeated....And that's why we take the lap now, it won't happen again before Halley's big rock returns in 2062....
"In 2016 We Had the #1 Stock In the S&P 500, In 2017 We Had the Top-Performing Commodity, In 2018 We've Got.... "
Nuthin'.So, with the S&P futures at 3,546.50 and the DJIA futs at 28,756.00 I'm going to try to figure-out the timing and the next move and leave you with that "pretty good Warren Buffett story":
So here's a little victory dance 'til we figure something out.
And after that, a pretty good Warren Buffett story.....
....Which brings us to today when all I have to offer are a couple snips from Warren Buffett's Letters to the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway
The '85 Berkshire letter continues one of my favorite BRK stories.
First the background, from the 1984 Chairman's Letter:
"...Using my academic voice, I have told you in the past of the drag that a mushrooming capital base exerts upon rates of return. Unfortunately, my academic voice is now giving way to a reportorial voice. Our historical 22% rate is just that - history. To earn even 15% annually over the next decade (assuming we continue to follow our present dividend policy, about which more will be said later in this letter) we would need profits aggregating about $3.9 billion. Accomplishing this will require a few big ideas - small ones just won’t do. Charlie Munger, my partner in general management, and I do not have any such ideas at present, but our experience has been that they pop up occasionally. (How’s that for a strategic plan?)..."And then, the dénouement in the paragraph which immediately preceded the Halley's bit in the 1985 letter:
...You may remember the wildly upbeat message of last year’s report: nothing much was in the works but our experience had been that something big popped up occasionally. This carefully- crafted corporate strategy paid off in 1985. Later sections of this report discuss (a) our purchase of a major position in Capital Cities/ABC, (b) our acquisition of Scott & Fetzer, (c) our entry into a large, extended term participation in the insurance business of Fireman’s Fund, and (d) our sale of our stock in General Foods....
