Thursday, September 24, 2020

EIA Natural Gas Storage Report: Well Here We Are Again

Today's word is contango, con-tang-o
First up, the estimates going into the release, from FX Empire:
..."A Bloomberg survey found estimates ranging from 68 Bcf to 82 Bcf, with a median of 77 Bcf, while estimates in a Wall Street Journal poll ranged from 71 Bcf to 85 Bcf, with an average of 77 Bcf. A Reuters poll of 13 analysts showed estimates ranging from 68 Bcf to 96 Bcf, with a median of 76 Bcf. NGI projected an injection of 71 Bcf.”...
And from the Energy Information Administration:
Working gas in storage was 3,680 Bcf as of Friday, September 18, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 66 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 504 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 407 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,273 Bcf. At 3,680 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range. 
That is bullish compared to the guesses but gas in storage is still above not just the median but the 5-year high:

Meaning temperatures are more important than production for the next few weeks, just to get past the seasonal storage peak and allay fears of storage capacity running out and recreating the problems oil faced at Cushing last spring.
Finally, prices, this is one steep contango:

October       2.247  +0.122
November    2.872  +0.078
December    3.307  +0.078

The last two week's price action in the rolling off October contract that had me thinking how peaceful bee-keeping would be: