Wednesday, September 23, 2020

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecasting 3rd Quarter Growth at 32.0% (annualized) New York at 14.3%

I do not know why they use an annualized number in situations that may be (is) a one-off but they all do, Atlanta Fed, New York Fed, Moody's, Markit etc.
So we shall as well.

From the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta:
...Latest estimate: 32.0 percent — September 17, 2020
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 32.0 percent on September 17, up from 31.7 percent on September 16. After this morning's housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth increased from 39.3 percent to 46.1 percent. ...

Atlanta almost always runs hotter than New York's Nowcast, they converge after the end of the quarter into the flash estimate.
From the Federal Reserve Bank of New York:

Sep 18, 2020: New York Fed Staff Nowcast
  • The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 14.3% for 2020:Q3 and 5.3% for 2020:Q4.
  • News from this week’s data releases decreased the nowcast for 2020:Q3 by 1.3 percentage points and decreased the nowcast for 2020:Q4 by 2 percentage points.
  • Negative surprises from industrial production, capacity utilization, retail sales, and housing starts data drove the decrease in both quarters.

From IHS Markit, September 1:
...The level of GDP in July was 32.6% above the second-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest tracking forecast of 28.7% annualized GDP growth in the third quarter are moderate declines in monthly GDP in August and September. High-frequency indicators consistent with declining activity include small-business revenues (Opportunity Insight), which have been trending lower since early July and the Weekly Economic Index (New York Fed), which, as of last week, suggests less third-quarter growth than we forecast....

And finally, Moody's is at 26.7%: