Monday, August 3, 2020

Hey Lookee There, Natural Gas Is Up 17.8%

First up, FinViz:

And a bit of commentary from FX Empire: 

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Expectations of Higher Export Demand, Possible Heat Supportive
The weather guys put heat back into the forecast, and demand for feed gas was up. These are short-term bullish factors.

A shift in the short-term forecast over the weekend was all it took to revive the sluggish natural gas market on Monday. The news that heat was being put back into the forecast helped offset the generally bearish tone created by worries that Hurricane Isaias would bring in cooler temperatures throughout the Midwest and East Coast.

At 14:30 GMT, September natural gas is trading $2.008, up $0.209 or +11.62%.
NatGasWeather wrote Monday morning, “The weekend weather data was only slightly changed in most models except for the European model, which gained a hefty amount of demand. In fact, the European model was cooler than the rest of the data by nearly 10 CDD’s at Friday’s close, then trended notably hotter over the weekend to now nearly 10 CDD’s hotter than the rest of the data.”
“The natural gas markets are clearly hoping the hotter European model is correct with prices up more than 20 cents this morning. Although, prices were likely aided by LNG/feedgas/exports increasing to 4 Bcf over the weekend to tighten the balance. The European model has been running too hot in most instances this summer, so there risk if it loses some demand to line up better with the rest of the data.”....

2.1190 up 0.3200 

As noted in the outro from Thursday's post on the decline following the storage report:
...That is an overreaction and we are still looking for prices to move: first, through the triple (or multiple) top just below the $2.00 line and secondly, to a front month price of $3.50 later into the heating season....
When price go through those multiple resistance (or support) levels they tend to go throuth with a bang.