The odds of landfall from one of the long-haul Cape Verde 'canes that come off Africa will go up according to this study.
Here's the current map for the Atlantic:
And Mexico's Pacific coast:
...GENEVIEVE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHEN GENEVIEVE PASSES TO THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...
From Artemis:
The chance that hurricanes making landfall in the United States during the 2020 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season has become even more pronounced with the latest forecasts, but remains less elevated than the chance of it being a far above average hurricane season from an activity point of view, according to ILS investment manager Twelve Capital.
In a previous update on the tropical Atlantic, the insurance-linked securities (ILS), catastrophe bond and reinsurance focused investment manager highlighted the tropical Atlantic’s main development region (MDR) and the Gulf region as two regions to watch for higher than normal activity this year.
The ILS manager’s analysis in June suggested that, while forecasts point to above average storm and hurricane activity, landfall risk was seen to be rising more slowly.
That’s changed now, with the risk of hurricane landfalls now seen as higher than it was back in June, reflecting the latest forecasts to have come in over the interim period.
Twelve Capital works with machine learning focused climate technology company reask on hurricane risk analysis and the pair have developed a proprietary North Atlantic hurricane seasonal forecast methodology.
With this modelling work, the ILS fund manager hopes to benefit from a more complete insurance risk assessment framework, when it comes to hurricane risk, incorporating a measure of regional hurricane landfall risk.
Twelve Capital and reask highlight that the main signals picked up from the June hurricane forecasts, of anomalously warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic, SST’s in the Pacific being indicative of a potential La Niña event before the end of the hurricane season, and precipitation and convection patterns in line with a strong West African Monsoon (WAM), all remain dominant.
As a result, the mean August forecast for hurricane activity levels have risen to 18.7 named storms, up from the 17.6 predicted in June, across the forecasts Twelve Capital tracks.....MUCH MORE
Forecasts for numbers of storms have risen for all the main regions, of the MDR, the Gulf and the East Coast.
However, the June forecasts had suggested that steering flow patterns and wind shear conditions might act as a natural protective barrier for the U.S. during peak hurricane season, lowering the rate of landfalls.
As of the August forecast updates, Twelve Capital said, “While this is still expected to broadly be the case, the strength of the signal has decreased. As a result the August mean forecast has risen to 1.6 US landfalls for MDR systems and 2.3 for storms originating from the Gulf region.”....
