Overview: After several days of aggressive risk-taking, investors are pausing ahead of the ECB meeting. Equities were mostly higher in the Asia Pacific region, though China was mixed, and Indian shares slipped. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a five-day advance, and US shares are trading with a heavier bias. The S&P 500 gapped higher yesterday, and that gap (~3081-3099) offers technical support. Benchmark 10-year bond yields are firmer. The US 10-year yield is rising for the fourth consecutive session around 74 bp is at the upper end of a two-month range. The dollar is trading higher against most currencies. Among the majors, those that have been among the strongest, like the Australian dollar, sterling, and the Scandi's are the weakest today, adding to the sense of profit-taking and corrective forces. Emerging market currencies are also softer, with the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index struggling to extend a five-day rally. Gold is recovering from yesterday's sell-off that saw nearly one-month lows (~$1690) and has resurfaced above $1700, the middle of a $100 range that largely confined it for the past two months. Oil is consolidating after the July WTI contract rose to nearly $38.20 yesterday, its highest in almost three months.
Asia Pacific
Hong Kong dollar forward points edged lower but bounced higher in late dealings, and the five-day drift lower has ended. Both the three-month and 12-month forward points rose today. We will continue to monitor them as a key gauge of tension. That said, we expect the Hong Kong band to remain in place for some time. Separately, the PBOC set the dollar's reference rate (CNY7.1012) a little lower than the bank models suggested (~CNY7.1035). After falling for four sessions, the dollar is firmer against the yuan for the second consecutive session. The yuan's weakness is most evident against the basket (CFETS) that the PBOC is said to track. The yuan has fallen for the better part of three weeks and is at its lowest level against the basket since early January.
Under pressure from the US, China has resumed allowing foreign inbound flights. These had been canceled during the peak of the pandemic, and officials have been reluctant to normalize the situation. Yesterday, the US threatened to lift Chinese airline flights to the US to one for everyone China lets of US flights. Although we are sympathetic to the framing of the US-China relations as a "Cold War"-- the multifaceted competition that is an organizing principle of international relations--this dispute is small beer. The tit-for-tat tactics, however, does illustrate the US penchant of unilateral action, where a coalition may have been possible as China's asymmetrical actions impacted other countries as well....
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