Friday, June 26, 2020

The Chinese Communist Party is Snared in a Multidimensional War

The query that intro'd to one of the India - China stories, Why now?

It would seem the CCP has a lot on their plate at the moment, what with their belt-and-road "partners" unable to make the payments and swine fever and coronavirus and who knows what else running through the vectors and the very likely demographic outcome that China gets old before it gets rich and on and on and on and on.

Is sabre rattling some sort of wag the dog to keep the population distracted?

From StrategyPage, June 23:

Communist China has decided it must crush Hong Kong because it knows the city presents an information-streaming ethnic, geographic, political and ideological alternative to the Chinese Communist Party's authoritarian police state.
The CCP police state promises China's citizens prosperity's material goodies -- cellphones, electric cars -- in exchange for silently accepting communist dictates no matter how harsh and malign. Hong Kong, however, is not a promise. It is an existing democratic example of 21st-century Chinese prosperity.

Why add "information streaming"? Despite the best efforts of the CCP's censors, cyberbullies, digital surveillance brigades and police threats, what happens in Hong Kong doesn't stay in Hong Kong. Information about Hong Kong's political, economic, social and cultural vitality manages to spread throughout mainland China.

The Chinese people also know Beijing lied about the COVID-19/Wuhan virus. The virus originated in China. Only former Obama administration media flacks argue otherwise. The CCP may have tried, but it failed to control human-to-human stories of mourning families. In February and March, the Chinese people knew why demand for funeral urns had spiked in the Hubei province.
The preceding four paragraphs sketch the domestic political threat the CCP confronts. Tiananmen Square proves the CCP sees this threat as a war.

The CCP cannot answer this question: How long can the prosperous tyranny continue to survive trading smartphones and quality American pork for political subservience by the roughly 400 million people in China's quasi-middle class? Don't get hung up on an exact figure. It's huge. But so are the 200 to 300 million in the murky stratum of workers who left home in central and western China to work in coastal China's factories. Many lack basic legal protections.

The Wuhan virus created a global economic malaise. Ignore the election-year doom-mongering. The American economic giant staggered, but May's employment numbers indicate the world's wealth-creating engine has regained its balance.

Not so with China. In 2019, the CCP accepted President Donald Trump's administration's demands for trade adjustments and planned for economic retrenchments. However, the Wuhan virus accelerated economic "decoupling" with the U.S. and the rest of North America.

Recent economic news suggests China is teetering. A China-EU investment and trade deal has snagged. Bloomberg reported defaults "in all sectors" of China's offshore bond market have exceeded $4 billion, double that during the same period of 2019. First-quarter 2020 percentage profits, capital expenditures and retail sales may be the lowest since the 1990s.
Big Picture:
The goodie-producing economic engine that braces the CCP's domestic political strategy needs international markets. China's domestic economy can't sustain it.
CCP international aggression magnifies the vulnerabilities. Recent vile aggression abounds. But call my choices cherry-picking and I'll call you a bribed media propagandist.
Instructive examples:
Imposing CCP tyranny on Hong Kong violates a treaty with G-7 power Great Britain. Goodbye, One China, Two Systems. Destroying the city's legal system damages its economic connectivity.
Border war with India: 
In the long run, it's worse than Hong Kong. Asia's two nuclear-armed giants contest Himalayan routes that make it easier for China to invade India.....