Original post:
From the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Nowcast:
11:15 EST January 10
- The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.1% for 2019:Q4 and 1.2% for 2020:Q1.
- News from this week's data releases decreased the nowcast for 2019:Q4 by 0.1 percentage point and left the nowcast for 2020:Q1 broadly unchanged.
- Negative news from international trade data accounted for most of the decrease.
The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now forecast has not been updated since January 7 when the guess was 2.3%
(as we've pointed out over the years GDP Now runs hotter the the Nowcast but they tend to converge)
GDP Now will be updated later today, we expect it to be lower than it was a few days ago.
Update: the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank left their number at 2.3% explaining:
... Latest forecast: 2.3 percent — January 10, 2020
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 2.3 percent on January 10, unchanged from January 7 after rounding. After this morning's release of the employment report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.4 percent and -2.5 percent, respectively, to 2.3 percent and -2.7 percent, respectively....
