From Reuters:
And again in 2018, this time Qatar's National Bank via LNG World News:* IEA says “massive amounts of new LNG” coming onlineGlobal liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets will remain oversupplied into the 2020s due to a surge in production, although soaring demand especially from China may tighten the market earlier than expected, the IEA said on Monday.
* But ample availability, low prices to spur demand
* Oversupply to gradually make market more flexible
“We will see massive amounts of new LNG capacity coming to the market ... so we will probably continue to have well-supplied markets into the middle of the 2020s,” said Keisuke Sadamori, director of energy markets and security at the International Energy Agency (IEA)....MUCH MORE
April 17, 2018
Global LNG market to tighten from 2024, QNB says
Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets are expected to be oversupplied until 2022 with capacity utilization forecasted to be in the range of 81-88% on average between 2019-22, but become undersupplied thereafter, according to a report by Qatar National Bank.
New LNG supply is expected up to 2020 mainly from the US and Australia, boosting global production by up to 96.5 mmtpa (million metric tons per annum) – or about 30% compared to the 2017 level, QNB said in the report issued on Sunday.Finally, from Platts via Hellenic Shipping News, December 24, 2019:
However, around 2024, the market is expected to tighten with supply broadly flat as few new LNG projects, which take about 5-7 years to complete, have been given the green light since the sharp decline of prices in 2014, the report said....MORE
Global LNG supply picture could start to get cloudy in 2020
Depending on the person you talk to, the global LNG supply glut will either end or persist during the early part of next decade.
A recent outlook from S&P Global Platts Analytics projected that the surge in new global LNG supply will finally come to an end by the middle of 2020, with capacity growth next year expected to be the slowest in five years. New supplies coming mainly from the US will still test the market’s ability to consume it, and sufficient demand growth will largely depend on lower prices.
“As long as we can be competitive out of the US as it relates to our feedstock, I would be surprised to see a massive disruption in the US industry,” said Omar Khayum, CEO of Annova LNG, an Exelon-backed export project being developed in Brownsville, Texas.
Platts Analytics expects that US LNG export volumes will rise from approximately 7.6 Bcf/d this month to 12.2 Bcf/d a year from now. That would be a build of 60%, versus the 65% increase over the last year. US export volume growth is expected to plunge to 10% in December 2021 compared with December 2020 and 5% in December 2022 compared with the previous December.
Pressuring traditional market fundamentals will be the likelihood that final investment decisions on additional global production capacity could increasingly move ahead without being connected to long-term contracts with end-users. The LNG market will need to respond more broadly by incentivizing additional investment in LNG use and gas demand, Platts Analytics said in the outlook.
In a recent report, Tudor Pickering Holt & Co. analysts described a spate of FID’s by deep-pocketed backers as a “changing of the guard,” reflecting the difficulty of securing long-term contracts, while indicating a growing spot market that further disincentivizes contracting. The energy investment bank expects contracts to become shorter and more flexible on volume, price and destination.....MUCH MORE
“The size of the LNG spot market is growing, and the price of a spot LNG cargo is lowering,” said Katie Bays, an energy analyst and co-founder of research and consulting firm Sandhill Strategy. “That’s a typical example of an oversupply environment. And an oversupply environment is a tough environment for commercial commitments, which is what independent projects need.”...
