From Science:
Artificial intelligence (AI) still can’t see the future, but a new algorithm may come close: Using nothing but written movie summaries, the AI can consistently tell which films will play well—or rottenly—to critics and audiences. If the model can be further refined, it could one day help producers predict whether a movie will be a flop at the box office, before it’s even made.*In February 2010 we had a preview of coming attractions: "Cantor to launch futures exchange for film buffs"
To test several models, researchers used plot summaries of 42,306 movies from all over the world, many collected from Wikipedia. The models broke up the summaries by sentence and used something called sentiment analysis to analyze each one. Sentences considered “positive,” such as “Thor loves his hammer,” would receive a rating closer to one. And sentences that were considered “negative,” like “Thor gets in a fight,” would be rated closer to negative one.
Generally, successful movies such as 1951’s Alice in Wonderland—which scored 80% on the movie-rating website Rotten Tomatoes—have frequent fluctuations in sentiment; unsuccessful ones, such as 2009’s The Limits of Control, fluctuate less. It’s not important whether the films begin or end happily, the researchers say. What’s important is that the sentiments change frequently....MORE
On June 15, 2010 CNBC reported:
The CFTC Approves Box Office Futures Trading
The evil Hollywood movie gang didn't like this one bit and lobbied (hard) to get rid of this information transfer mechanism.
On July 29, 2010 CNBC reported:
The End of the Box Office Futures Business
so box office receipts remain relegated, along with onions, to the realm of THINGS YOU ARE NOT ALLOWED TO TRADE IN THE USA*
Probably related:
Film Note: 'The Young Karl Marx' Apparently Not Much of a Date Movie
After seven weeks in American theaters, box office earnings for “The Young Karl Marx” totaled all of $120,826.
I told 'em to name it "Marx in Love" but noooo....
To avoid this fate read "On the Passing Of Storyteller William Goldman (and how to sell a screenplay)" or go visit Jamie.
*The Onion Futures Act of 1958.
7 U.S. Code § 13–1 - Violations, prohibition against dealings in motion picture box office receipts or onion futures; punishment
(a) No contract for the sale of motion picture box office receipts (or any index, measure, value, or data related to such receipts) or onions for future delivery shall be made on or subject to the rules of any board of trade in the United States. The terms used in this section shall have the same meaning as when used in this chapter.The act was passed after a bear raid in Chicago crushed the price of onion futures from $2.75 to a dime.
(b) Any person who shall violate the provisions of this section shall be deemed guilty of a misdemeanor and upon conviction thereof be fined not more than $5,000.
