Tuesday, August 27, 2019

UPDATED—Huge if True: "Super eruption of Shiveluch volcano in Kamchatka..."

Update: Shiveluch Volcano: "NO Major Eruption on 25 Aug, Ash Plume only to 23,000 and not 70,000 ft"
Original post:
This is a Google Translate of a story at Meteo Giornale (It):
WEATHER REPORT: Shiveluch Volcano is known for its violent eruptions; located in the western part of the Kamchatka Peninsula, in north-eastern Russia, in February 2015, it succeeded in sending its ashes to Alaska by crossing the Bering Strait.

It has an altitude of 2800 meters, it is one of the most active volcanic structures on the planet.

However the volcanic eruption occurred was considered one of the largest in the last decades, reaching a VEI 5-6 value in the scale of measurement of the power of these eruptions.

Ashes and particles have reached a height of 21 thousand meters, reaching extensively the Stratosphere, where they will presumably remain several months, spreading through high-altitude currents on a large part of our Hemisphere....MORE

The story says this may be a weather changer but that's not quite true. We've touched on how important:
a) the height of the sulfate injection is 
b) which is a function of the explosivity (measured by the VEI: Volcanic Explosivity Index)
b) the latitude of the eruption 
August 5, 2019
"Kyle Bass: China’s currency would collapse 30% to 40% if they stopped supporting it"
....  That little tidbit made its way into the dusty old "If this happens then do this" file, along with the Tokyo earthquake plan* and the eruption of one of Iceland's big volcanoes at a Volcanic Explosivity Index of 6 or larger....

June 13, 2019 
Ag Commodities: "The Weather Story in Corn Isn't Over This Summer"
...Meanwhile, Indonesia's Mount Agung is going off, and though it is currently only spewing to around 30,000 feet this one has the potential to inject sulfates into the stratosphere which, again only talking potential so far, could result in spring 2020 being a replay of 2019, cool and wet in the American Midwest (and less rain over the Atlantic)...

September 2018 
New study confirms monster volcano Katla is charging up for an eruption 
Well, on to the next disaster.

Back when Eyjafjallajökull  was erupting in 2010 we had a few posts on big sister, Katla. That was the Iceland volcano the vulcanologists worried about. There was speculation that if it were to blow it could rate as high as a 7 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index.

The last 7 VEI eruption was Tambora in 1815 which led to The Year Without a Summer in 1816.
By comparison Eyjafjallajökull was a 4 on the index and Mt. St. Helens and Vesuvius were 5's.

December 2017
"Can a Single Volcano Cool the Earth?" 
And if it should be in the tropics rather than one of the Russian or Alaskan 'cano's, the effect is magnified. Had the Icelandic eruption mentioned below (and in our 2015 post: Laki: How A Volcano Swallowed Europe) been located at the equator the impact would have been doubled or tripled....

For what it's worth Volcano Discovery is also reporting the weekend eruption but not assigning a VEI.
The key now is how long the explosions continue—meaning how much ash and sulfate is ejected.

Shiveluch volcano
Stratovolcano 3283 m (10,771 ft)
Kamchatka, 56.65°N / 161.36°E
Current status: erupting (4 out of 5)
Shiveluch webcams / live data | Reports
Shiveluch volcano videos
Shiveluch volcano books | Tours
Shiveluch volcano eruptions:
1739(?), 1800(?), 1854 (Plinian eruption), 1879-83, 1897-98, 1905, 1928-29, 1930, 1944-50, 1964 (sub-Plinian, large dome collapse and debris flow), 1980-81, 1984, 1985, 1986-88, 1988, 1989 1990-94, 1997, 1998, 1999, 1999-ongoing
Typical eruption style:
Highly explosive. Construction of lava domes and large pyroclastic flows caused by dome collapse. One of Kamchatka's largest and most active volcanoes.