Thursday, June 13, 2019

Ag Commodities: "The Weather Story in Corn Isn't Over This Summer"

Great.
Two from AgWeb. First up, June 12:
The historic spring is rattling the markets. September corn futures rallied 80 cents since mid-May after the markets realized there were serious issues getting the crop planted this year.
Even with major planting progress being made by farmers last year, planting is still historically behind. So, just how historic could 2019 be?

“This is double the geographic area of 1993, but this blows all the statisticians out of the water” said Bill Beidermann of AgMarket.Net on U.S. Farm Report this weekend. “Statistically, we just started STAX in 2013.”

USDA, acknowledging the adverse weather could have an impact on yield, made a small adjustment to yield in this week’s supply and demand report, dropping its estimate to 166 bushels per. However, the yield estimate is still at a decent level, with the estimate pegging this year’s corn crop as the sixth best on record. Biedermann thinks this week’s adjustment to the yield adjustment is just a start.
“The big question is, ‘Is supply going up or is supply going down?’” Biedermann. “We have no idea yet of how bad it’s going to be. It’s going to take all summer to really access this.”

Mike North of Commodity Risk Management Group lives in the southwest portion of Wisconsin. He said the area had a five-day window of dry weather, which was fruitful for farmers needing to plant. The northeastern portion of the state is a much different story, as he said in some cases, farmers are still waiting to get into the field. He said that’s the story playing out across the country.

“The conditions are variable, and I think that’s what makes this very frustrating,” said North. “There are places where crops went in well, some on time, some late. There are some areas where the crop went in poorly, and some areas where the crop isn’t going in at all. And as Bill pointed out, we aren’t going to be able to wrap our heads around this until we get far enough along to know how many acres we have in the field, what the stands look like, is the yield potential anywhere close to what you planned or is it way off the mark?”

He said adding to the uncertainty and variables this year are areas that saw massive nitrogen loss from all the rain, and some even seeing drowned out spots – or even entire fields – from monsoon rains....MUCH MORE
And:
Debate Begins on 2020 Planting Intentions
2019 corn and soybean planting has multiple weeks worth of work left to finish and yet analysts like Craig Turner of "Turner's Take" and a broker at Daniel's Trading, tells AgDay's Clinton Griffiths its already going to impact decisions next year.

"We know we're going to have some pretty long term issues with global feed demand," says Turner. "Even without a U.S. China trade war, there's still going to be the lingering effects of African Swine Fever for a couple of years and that's going to really impact the soybean market."

Turner expects given the trade dispute, South America will likely increase soybean production in 2020.
"Where does that leave the United States," says Turner. "Also how do things work out with the [trade] aid regarding prevent plant and the rules for the payouts."....MORE
Meanwhile, Indonesia's Mount Agung is going off, and though it is currently only spewing to around 30,000 feet this one has the potential to inject sulfates into the stratosphere which, again only talking potential so far, could result in spring 2020 being a replay of 2019, cool and wet in the American Midwest (and less rain over the Atlantic).
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