Thursday, June 20, 2019

Capital Markets: Your Love Is Lifting Me Higher

I'm thinking that may be our theme song for the blow-off phase, see "Just a Reminder: Riding the Bubble Can Be Very Profitable".
It's probably a sad reflection on me that, despite Jackie Wilson's amazing talent I preferred our theme song for the 2008 - 2009 unpleasantness, The Ramones' I Wanna Be Sedated.

From Marc to Market:

Doves Rules the Roost Except in Oslo 
Overview: prospect of "lower for longer" continues to fuel the bond and stock rally. The initial US equity response to the Fed was positive but not strong and closed about 0.3% higher. Asia Pacific equities followed suit with mostly modest gains, except for China and Hong Kong, where gains of more than 1% were recorded. Hong Kong's four-day rally lifts the Hang Seng over 5% this week and set to advance for the third week. It had lost nearly 9.5% in May. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up around 0.6% in late morning dealings to bring this week's advance to a little more than 2%. The S&P 500 is poised to gap higher toward the record high set at the start of last month. Yields are tumbling, with new record lows in Australia and New Zealand. The minus 16.5 bp yield of the generic JGB is a fresh three-year low. Italian and Greek bond yields are off 8-9 bp today extending their impressive run, while other peripheral European and UK yields are 3-4 bp lower, and core yields are off 1-2 bp. The US 10-year pushed below 2% but is slightly above there now. The dollar is falling against nearly all the world's currencies today. Among the majors, the Japanese yen is the weakest with around a 0.35% gain, while the Norwegian krone has been lifted nearly 1.7% on the back of the rate hike and signal of another one likely this year. The Chinese yuan rose almost 0.8% against the dollar (to ~CNY6.85), which appears to be the largest gain of the year.
Asia Pacific
The Bank of Japan left policy steady
as widely expected. BOJ Kuroda recognized rising external risks. The cautionary words are not likely sufficient to deter the Abe government from lifting the sales tax in October. Government officials have indicated that only something on the magnitude of the fall of Lehman or the Great Financial Crisis would deter it. That bar may be somewhat high, and any dilution may be favorable for Japanese stocks...

We already have "When Doves Cry" lined up in the queue but I've been told by more than one person that if we're going to use Prince it should be "1999":

"I was dreaming when I wrote this
Forgive me if it goes astray..."