Thursday, May 23, 2019

"Gasoline Volume Sales and our Changing Culture"

We used to track gasoline sales and miles driven obsessively but after the great recession they didn't seem to have as much predictive skill re: econ. trends so we moved on. Here we revisit.
From Advisor Perspectives, May 21:
The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-March, are now available. Gasoline prices and increases in fuel efficiency are important factors, but there are also some significant demographic and cultural dynamics in this data series.

Because the sales data are highly volatile with some obvious seasonality, we've added a 12-month moving average (MA) to give a clearer indication of the long-term trends. The latest 12-month MA is 1.8% below its all-time high set in August 2005 and well off its -8.9% interim low set in August 2014.
Gasoline Volume Sales
The next chart includes an overlay of real monthly retail gasoline prices, all grades and formulations, adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index (the red line)....

Which reminds me...July 1, 2017....price elasticity of gasoline demand....oh the fun we had.

So Then I Proposed A Corporate Blog....
...but that idea didn't go over with the investment policy committee.

Next thing I know, I'm in this joint lecturing on sticky prices and the elasticity of gasoline demand while....yo, blonde guy, you have any termites I could nosh?

Where was I....yeah, the blog....I figured the best way to get out of this gig was to do a personal blog, maybe go on the TED circuit, you know, get recognized as a thought leader.

But that damn vlogger Zola in Dallas stepped on those dreams with the splishy-splashy dance, ten million views first day, sucked the air right out of the room and.....could I get a few more of those ants, the black kind not the fire ones, too spicy...where was I again? 
Oh yeah, Zola...