Thursday, May 30, 2019

Ag Commodities: "The Party Over Already?"

Nah, although yesterday's reversal, following Tuesday's gap-up, was dramatic. I don't know if there's even a name for this candlestick formation with the gigantic range, to life-of-contract highs and huge body of the candle closing down followed by today's even-larger-body trading up (over there on the right):

And the headline story from AgWeb:

The Hueber Report
The Party I Over Already?
May 30, 2019

Is the party over already?  It seems that it really just got started. Both the corn and wheat markets posted reversals lower yesterday after gapping into higher highs for this advance, which would tend to be viewed as a classic sign of exhaustion. Even though nothing has changed in the underlying issues that have sparked this advance, considering that July corn has advanced $.95 over the last 11 sessions and July wheat $1.03, taking a little breather would seem quite understandable.  Add to this the fact that we have daily indicators back into a very overbought position and teetering on the edge of a precipice and you could make even the most ardent bulls begin the question their faith just a bit.   Do recognize, at this point these are just warning flags and we would need to witness additional follow-though for confirmation but even if that happened, I do not believe it would signal a return to an overall bearish pattern as the problems we have faced this spring cannot be undone. 
I am on the first leg of my trip through Illinois, Missouri and Iowa and coming down from Northern Illinois to Springfield last night, I do not believe I witnessed a single field of corn that was over 5 inches tall.  Of course, that was only those that happened to have been planted at all. While I fully expected this to be the case, it was still a bit shocking to see and in the forty plus years that I have been in this business, is nothing that I can recall, at least on this scale, witnessing before....MORE