Monday, May 13, 2019

China's Vice-Premier, Liu He, May End Up As Xi's Fall Guy

It's just a small thing but CNBC caught it a few days ago:
May 9, 2019
China’s top negotiator may have diminished role in trade talks ahead of dinner with US officials
  • China’s top trade negotiator, Liu He, will meet with President Donald Trump’s trade team on Thursday without the title “special envoy” for President Xi Jinping, a role he has held in previous talks.
  • The demotion suggests the vice premiere may have diminished authority to make concessions that could be key to striking a deal.
...MORE

I'd take it a step further and say the fact Liu He wasn't allowed to bind Xi as his former title previously allowed means that the (non) result of the talks was preordained last week in Beijing and that Xi's hard line may win out over his top negotiator's more flexible approach. Meaning Mr. Liu could become dispensable.
That would have a negative effect on equities.

Lending a bit of credence to the idea the trade talks decision was made earlier, the Central Government had begun a national inventory of grain stocks, quality and amount, in March. This is only the third such inventory this century, following similar efforts in 2001 and 2009.
Here's one example from Fujian Province via Google Translate (no humans to help me at the moment): 

Putian: From May 6th, the policy food stocks inventory was fully launched.
The reporter learned from the Municipal Development and Reform Commission yesterday that after completing the preparatory work, the city will start a comprehensive inspection of policy food stocks from May 6.
According to reports, policy food includes central reserve grain, minimum purchase price, and local grain reserves. According to the principle of “unified draw, mixed grouping, centralized training, comprehensive crossover, and local avoidance”, the Office of the Municipal Qingchao Work Coordination Group will transfer 25 inspectors and divide them into 2 inspection teams. From May 6th, the city will be included in the inspection. A comprehensive census of policy food stocks and quality in scope, ending before May 30.
This census adopts the method of “having a warehouse, a grain must be checked, a book must be nuclear, a thorough investigation, and a trace of the whole process”. The city-level census will be used at 24 o'clock on March 31 to check various types of enterprise storage. The policy food, as well as the storage of commodity food for policy-oriented food enterprises, examined a total of 12 enterprises and 20 stocks.
In order to improve the transparency of the large-scale inspection work and standardize the inspection behavior, when the census working group is stationed, it will issue a magnifying and informing notice to the enterprise, post a census notice at a prominent position in the enterprise and the warehouse, announce the contact number, etc., and accept the inspection of the enterprise and the masses. And supervision. At the same time, it actively invites NPC deputies, CPPCC members, retired cadres and workers, and large grain farmers to supervise. (Pazhou Daily reporter Chen Guangkai Lin Wei) 
Finally, although the South China Morning Post is far from a party organ, owner Alibaba (Jack Ma) does have to pay attention to what the government wants published and right now it appears President Xi wants to be seen as belligerant:
SCMP Headlines, May 14
China’s tariffs wipe US$1 trillion off global markets, with US hit hardest
  • US tech bellwethers were among the hardest-hit stocks, with Apple and Tesla both dropping more than 5 per cent
  • Market sell-off resumed after China said it would impose 25 per cent duties on a portion of US$60 billion worth of US goods starting on June 1
China vows to fight ‘to the end’ and raise tariffs on US$60 billion of goods 

China launches two new destroyers in drive to strengthen navy
Advanced warships will boost PLA Navy’s operational capabilities but its focus may soon shift to improving training and logistics.

Trump says no decision yet on whether all Chinese goods will face tariffs
The US president also confirmed that he would be meeting his counterpart, Xi Jinping, during the G20 meetings in Japan at the end of June.

Six Chinese tech firms banned from exporting sensitive US goods
US Commerce Department says four companies attempted to procure goods that would have supported Iran’s weapons of mass destruction and military programmes.

On Balance | Anti-China hostility blazes on in the US, thanks to Trump
Even if he wanted to, the US president can no longer contain the anti-China hostility he unleashed in his run for the Oval Office. America’s hard line makes any trade deal unlikely.

Opinion | US trade war makes Russia an indispensable partner for China   

Inside Out | China should walk away from trade talks, and hit back at US

Opinion | How talk of a clash of civilisations with China suits the US 

Macroscope | Trump’s stock market ‘weapon’ a double-edged sword in trade war 

Tonnes of US products are on ships to China – but will they be accepted? 

Trump warns China it will be ‘hurt very badly’ if it doesn’t do a deal
US President’s latest flurry of tweets includes warning to Beijing not to retaliate after he raised tariffs on Chinese imports.

Chinese media warns US it risks making ‘mistake after mistake’
Editorial in People’s Daily says Beijing wants to settle its differences with the US, but warns it will not change its system and can weather a lengthy stand-off.

China ‘a kung fu master that can deliver deadly trade war punch to US’
Wei Jianguo, former vice-minister at the Ministry of Commerce responsible for foreign trade, said China has already prepared for a prolonged trade war.

China vows to fight ‘to the end’ and raise tariffs on US$60 billion of goods
Ministry of Finance says the move, with duties to rise to ‘25, 20 and 10 per cent’, is a response to ‘unilateralism and trade protectionism’.

That's not even all of the front page.
Xi's in charge.
So the question that comes to mind is "How many DJIA points is Mr. Liu's presence worth?"
Rough estimate: 2000.