From the Office of the Chief Economist, U.S. Department of Agriculture, July 12:
NOTE: Consistent with established practices, this report only considers those trade actions which are in place or have had formal announcement of effective dates as of the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, this report also assumes such actions are in place throughout the time period covered by these forecasts....MUCH MORE
NOTE: This report adopts U.S. area, yield, and production forecasts for winter wheat, durum, other spring wheat, barley, and oats released today by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). For rice, corn, sorghum, soybeans, and cotton, area estimates reflect the June 29 NASS Acreage report, and methods used to project production are noted on each table. The first survey -based 2018 production forecasts for those crops will be reported by NASS on August 10.
WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2018/19 wheat supplies are raised 74 million bushels on increased beginning stocks and higher production. Forecast 2018/19 U.S. wheat production is raised 54 million bushels to 1,881 million. The NASS July Crop Production report provides survey -based production forecasts for all wheat classes for the first time in the 2018/19 crop year. The production forecast for durum and other spring wheat are up from last year’s low level due to improved yields and higher spring wheat area. Winter wheat production is down slightly from the June forecast. Ending stocks for 2018/19 are raised 39 million bushels this month but are 11 percent below last year’s revised stocks. The 2018/19 season -average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel at the midpoint to a projected range of $4.50 to $5.50.
Foreign 2018/19 wheat supplies are decreased 9.3 million tons primarily on lower production, which is the smallest in three years. The production declines are led by a 4.4 -million -ton reduction for the EU reflecting continued dryness especially in the north. Australia, Russia, and Ukraine are lowered 2.0 million, 1.5 million, and 1.0 million tons, respectively, and also reflect continued dryness. China production is reduced 1.0 million tons on lower harvested area as reported by the Ministry of Agriculture. Global 2018/19 exports are lowered 1.9 million tons on decreased supplies. EU exports are reduced 1.5 million tons and Australia and Russia are both lowered 1.0 million tons. These export reductions are partially offset by a 1.0- million -ton increase for Canada and a 0.7 -million -ton increase for the United States. Total foreign consumption for 2018/19 is lowered 2.3 million tons on both lower food and feed and residual use. With global supplies declining more than projected use, world ending stocks are reduced 5.3 million tons to 260.9 million.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater feed and residual use, increased exports, and lower ending stocks. Corn beginning stocks are lowered 75 million bushels as higher forecast exports and food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use more than offset lower feed and residual use in 2017/18. Increased 2017/18 exports are based on record -high shipments during the month of May and export inspection data for June. Current outstanding export sales are also record high. FSI use is rais ed as a projected 25- million -bushel increase in the amount of corn used for ethanol , based on reported use to date , is partially offset by a decline in the amount of corn used for glucose and dextrose. Feed and residual use is lower based on indicated dis appearance during the first three quarters of the marketing year in the June 29 Grain Stocks report....
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