Friday, July 27, 2018

"Twitter Shares Crash 17% After Users Drop, Company Warns More Declines Expected" (TWTR)

I'm starting to think Twitter is just another chance to look like a moron and quite honestly we all have more than enough of those sorts of opportunities. As Abe Lincoln said:
It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt*
From ZeroHedge:
It's deja vu all over again as Jack Dorsey pulled a Zuckerberg and reported a miss - and a drop - in user growth, while warning of even greater declines in the coming quarter.

Looking at the financial results, they were not that bad, with the company reporting Q2 adjusted EPS 17c, just beating the estimate of 16c, with Q2 adjusted Ebitda of $265 million also beating estimates of $261.5 million, on Q2 revenue of $711 million, higher than consensus $697 million, of which ad revenue was $601 million, up 23% y/y, however a slowdown in US ad growth is starting to become obvious, with US ad revenues rising only 9%.
However, what spooked the market is that monthly active users were 335 million, a decline of 1 million from the prior quarter largely in the US (where MAUs dropped from 69MM to 68MM), and a miss of the average analyst estimates of 337.8 million.
Macquarie's Benjamin Schachter put it well in a note before the earnings came out:
"Despite Trump being perhaps the most high-profile user possible, usage has not dramatically improved over the past couple years. We simply don't see the product improvements having a dramatic impact on Twitter's ability to attract new users.''
He's right: the following long-term chart of user growth shows just how much it has slowed down in recent quarters....

In pre-market action the stock is down $5.45 (12.69%) at $37.49 

*Maybe it wasn't Lincoln. From The Quotations Page:

...It's been attributed to many persons, but seems to have its roots in the Bible:

It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt . -- George Eliot
Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.-- Abraham Lincoln (also attr. Confucius)
It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.-- Mark Twain (1835-1910)
Even a fool, when he holdeth his peace, is counted wise: and he that shutteth his lips is esteemed a man of understanding. -- Bible, 'Proverbs' 17:28.
There are no citations for Lincoln or Twain. I have my doubts about Confucius.