Monday, July 30, 2018

Ahead of Tomorrow's Apple Earnings.... (AAPL)

I got nuthin'.
A quick look at the chart:

AAPL Apple Inc. daily Stock Chart

Except for the gap up May1-2, $168.45 to $175.23 and the resistance-becomes-support line around $180 nothing really stands out.
I do know the broader market does not need a complete fail from Apple. it is still the largest market cap in world meaning the cap-weighted S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 in particular are sensitive because math. And in the DJIA and Nasdaq because price-weighting and psychology respectively.

Here are the top 10 names in the hundo (11 symbols) as of the close on July 27:

Components of the Nasdaq 100
Rank Company Symbol Weight
1 Apple Inc AAPL 11.151
2 Inc AMZN 10.475
3 Microsoft Corp MSFT 9.828
4 Alphabet Inc GOOG 5.134
5 Facebook Inc FB 4.983
6 Alphabet Inc GOOGL 4.445
7 Intel Corp INTC 2.639
8 Cisco Systems Inc CSCO 2.378
9 PepsiCo Inc PEP 1.925
10 Comcast Corp CMCSA 1.914
11 Netflix Inc NFLX 1.834

And here are the last two weeks of  the 100

Netflix and Facebook got hammered, GOOG and Amazon had stellar reports but traded down and Microsoft was boring but is also down 5% since reporting. Back to Apple, it's out of our wheelhouse but a couple percent beat would be positive. Maybe announce a takeover of the Federal Reserve or a mid-size country if guidance looks weak.

Here's the earnings surprise history over the last year, via Nasdaq, you can see what excited the gap up:

Quarterly Earnings Surprise History

Quarter End
Per Share
EPS* Forecast
Mar2018 05/01/2018 2.73 2.69 1.49
Dec2017 02/01/2018 3.89 3.82 1.83
Sep2017 11/02/2017 2.07 1.87 10.7
Jun2017 08/01/2017 1.67 1.57 6.37

Apple-ologists will be listening intently for comments on the next phone, parsing every umm and ah.
We'll see what they've got to say on Wednesday. The stock, as the saying goes, is widely covered.