Sunday, July 1, 2018

Shipping: We May Not Have To Worry About Trade Wars And Tariffs Much Longer

First up, TopDown Charts from a couple weeks ago: 

Chart: Global Trade - High Frequency Indicators
June 17
Kicking off the week, here's a chart of the weekly global trade indicators.  This chart shows the z-score for the Baltic Dry Index (bulk commodity shipping costs), the China Containerized Freight Index (Chinese general export costs), and the relative performance of the equities in the Dow Jones Global Shipping Index.  The key point is the weekly global trade indicators saw a broad weakening earlier this year, but have begun to rebound in recent weeks.  This is an encouraging sign, because there have been some doubts on the robustness of the global trade boom, particularly as the USA trades tariffs with China and Europe, and NAFTA negotiations drag on.  Aside from the political risks, global trade also reflects the health of the broader global economy, and has been a key indicator to watch in getting the right global macro inputs for both global bonds and global equities.
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One of his lower frequency indicators is the monthly RWI/ISL Container Throughput Index which will be reporting June numbers on July 24. That should be a decent snapshot of the effects on trade of the first month of tariffs, which may not be as dramatic as feared.'s a snappy headline from The Independent, June 28 that got highlighted in one of the feedreaders:
Shipping and airline travel must be eliminated in their current forms to stop climate change, scientists warn
Here's the press release from the University of California, Irvine campus.