Sunday, January 3, 2016

Oil Stuff We Think About: Sunni, Shi'a, Oil and Nukes

Ever since this afternoon's "Saudi Arabia cuts diplomatic ties with Iran over embassy storming" with its little one-line intro: "No nukes is good nukes.", I've been thinking about how much thinking we put into this stuff.

Here are some of the public posts we've put up over the years:

August 2015
"The Long-Term Oil Play"
Some of the easily identifiable considerations to plug into your model are the depressive effects of slowing population growth and international agreements to use force to further the stranded assets argument, the inflationary effects of a reduction in the total resource and more particularly in the lower cost plays and the could-go-either-way interplay of price and regulation in the development of alternative transportation and whether Saudi Arabia asks Pakistan to lend them 60-70 nukes until their domestic nuclear development program gets going.

Then there are the unknown unknowns....
June 2015
"Princes fleeing Saudi Arabia after Yemen’s scud missile attack"
Iran and the Saud clan hate each other so any reporting of one by the other is probably propaganda.
On the other hand, look for the Saudi's to start their nuke program by 2017.
May 2015
"Saudi Arabia to buy nuclear bombs from Pakistan: report"

May 2015
So What Happens If ISIS Attacks Saudi Arabia?
Completely unrelated:
Saudi Billionaire to Buy $95 Mil. NYC Penthouse 
April 2015
Why Saudis Could Let Crude Oil Drop to $25
...But traders are looking at the wrong producer. One of the most important actors in this drama isn’t even at the table in Lausanne – Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest producer and exporter of crude. Saudi Arabia believes it, more than even Israel, has the most to lose from a nuclear Iran. And like Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who traveled to Washington earlier this month to kvetch to the U.S. Congress, the Saudis don’t believe the deal is tough enough to deter Tehran’s hardliners. They’re likely to keep punishing Tehran by letting crude prices slide even lower.... 
April 2014
"The risks of a nuclear Saudi Arabia"

February 2014
Oil: "Why the great Sunni-Shi'a conflict is getting ever closer to the surface"

January 2014
Oil: Will Iraq and Iran Flood the Market to Punish Saudi Arabia?
Don't underestimate Shi'a/Sunni hatred....
Nov. 2013
Saudi Arabia Has Nuclear Weapons ‘on order,’ Ready to Deliver from Pakistan: Report
Isn't that just special.
 This crossed the wire earlier today (yesterday BST) but now there are a dozen other sources carrying the story.
The Saudis hate the Iranians and want to overthrow Assad in Syria.
They don't much like the Jews either....

June 2012
Ahead of Tomorrow's OPEC Meeting: Doves Trying to Kill Hawks
A couple factoids: at 10.0 mmbbl/day Saudi production is near a thirty year high.
Iran, at 4.2 mmbbl/day is near a twenty year low.

They hate each other.

They hate for reasons ranging from the 12th Imam/Sunni-Shia thing to Great Satan relations to plain old orneriness....

June 2012
"Riyadh to Beijing: We’ll Pay for Nuclear-Capable Ballistic Missiles with All the Oil You Need "
Read everything from Debka with suspicion but remember two things:
1) Debka has sources the CIA would kill for
2) The Saudi's really, really dislike Iran.
June 2010
UPDATED--War and Rumors of War: "Saudi Arabia gives Israel clear skies to attack Iranian nuclear sites"
Saudi Arabia denies flight deal against Iran
(Still thinks Ahmadinejad dresses funny)
August 2007
A Shi'a-Sunni War of International Dimension Looms Ahead

There are quite a few more but you get the point. In the words of the eminent philosopher-analyst Eeyore:
"It's snowing still," said Eeyore gloomily.
"So it is."
"And freezing."
"Is it?"
"Yes," said Eeyore. "However," he said, brightening up a little, "we haven't had an earthquake lately."