Friday, January 29, 2016

Natural Gas: EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report

New March front month: 2.265 up 0.083.
From the Energy Information Administration:

In the News:
Natural gas markets weather storm
Though a blizzard brought record daily snowfalls to much of the East Coast this past weekend, price and consumption effects were relatively muted, and less pronounced than the effects of very cold weather the previous week beginning Monday, January 18. In the Northeast, natural gas spot prices remained greater than the Henry Hub spot price but were lower than levels earlier this month.

Residential and commercial consumption began last week at relatively high levels, resulting from very cold temperatures in the Northeast. During the storm, Friday, January 22, to Sunday, January 24, residential and commercial consumption averaged 49.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), compared to a five-year (2011-15) average of 53.4 Bcf/d, according to Bentek data. So far in January, total residential and commercial consumption has been very close to five-year average levels, unlike December 2015, when consumption was comparatively low because of much warmer-than-normal weather.

Production remained strong during the storm, even in northeastern areas. Bentek Energy noted that production showed no signs of being affected by the storm, despite several feet of snow being dropped on the area. In the past, low temperatures have caused well freeze-offs....MUCH MORE
EIA reports largest weekly net storage pull in the 2015-16 heating season. Net withdrawals from working gas totaled 211 Bcf, exceeding the 5-year (2011-15) average net withdrawal of 170 Bcf by 24%. The withdrawal was almost twice as large as last year's pull for the same storage week. This marks the fourth consecutive week of triple-digit storage withdrawals in the Lower 48 states. Still, working gas levels remain relatively high, with a surplus of 530 Bcf (21%) compared with last year at this time, and 432 Bcf (16%) higher than the 5-year average.

Withdrawals from working gas are generally in line with market expectations. Market analysts predicted working gas draws totaling 207 Bcf for the week, on average. Prices on the Nymex for the March 2016 futures contract gained 3¢/ MMBtu to $2.13/MMBtu in fairly heavy trading, with 815 contracts trading hands immediately following the release of EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report at 10:30 a.m.

The storage report week is the coldest of the 2015–16 heating season. Temperatures for the report week averaged just less than 32°F, about 1°F below the normal level for this time of year and 6°F below the level reported last year at this time. The cold snap increased heating demand by about 8% over the previous week, with heating degree-days (HDD) totaling 233 for the week. Cumulative HDD remain about 13% below normal thus far in the heating season, which began November 1, despite the colder-than-normal temperatures reported for the storage week....
Mean Temperature Anomaly (F) 7-Day Mean ending Jan 21, 2016