Friday, November 9, 2012

USDA: World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimate--More Beans, Wheat (WASDE)

As I said yesterday:
You may have wondered why we haven't posted on agricultural recently.
It's simply explained:
The commodities have settled into a price rut while the equities are trending down with just enough whipsaws to stop you out with small losses.
Wheat is down $0.115 at $8.91, soybeans are down $0.2975 at $14.67, corn is up 1.25 cents at $7.445.
A twofer from Bloomberg:
World Wheat Supply Seen Higher as on Lower Demand
(Corrects to show stockpile forecast was up from October in second paragraph.)
World wheat inventories before the next Northern Hemisphere harvest will be 0.7 percent larger than forecast a month ago as demand fell, the government said. Analysts expected a decline in supplies.

Global stockpiles will total 174.18 million metric tons at the end of May, up from 173 million forecast in October, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report. The average estimate of 15 analysts in a Bloomberg survey was 171.50 million tons.

A 2.5 million ton reduction in the estimated amount of wheat to be used for animal feed more than offset a projected drop in Australian production to 21 million tons, from 23 million projected last month, according to the report....MORE 
Soybeans Tumble as Bigger U.S. Crop Boosts Supply; Corn Steady
Soybeans plunged to a four-month low after a U.S. government report showed that August rains helped revive Midwest yields more than forecast, after the worst drought in five decades. Corn was little changed.
The soybean harvest will total 2.971 billion bushels, up 3.9 percent from last month’s forecast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected 2.892 billion. Corn output will be 10.725 billion bushels, up from 10.706 billion estimated in October. Better-than-expected U.S. yields will boost global inventories, the USDA said.

“There wasn’t really a bullish number in the lot to hang your hat on,” Charlie Sernatinger, a vice president for ABN Amro Clearing LLC in Chicago, said in an e-mail. “November is not going to be a good month for the bulls.”

Soybean futures for January delivery fell 1.4 percent to $14.7525 a bushel at 8:14 a.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade, after touching $14.63, the lowest since July 3. Through yesterday, the price had fallen 16 percent since reaching a record $17.89 on Sept. 4....MORE
Here's the WASDE.