Monday, November 19, 2012

Short the French: The Economist Drops a Turd in the Punchbowl

For the last couple months we've been posting our "Short the French" series.
Good to see a 169-year old can crawl onto the bandwagon, it gives hope to those of us approaching that age.

From The Economist:
France and the euro
The time-bomb at the heart of Europe
Why France could become the biggest danger to Europe’s single currency

THE threat of the euro’s collapse has abated for the moment, but putting the single currency right will involve years of pain. The pressure for reform and budget cuts is fiercest in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy, which all saw mass strikes and clashes with police this week (see article). But ahead looms a bigger problem that could dwarf any of these: France.
The country has always been at the heart of the euro, as of the European Union. President François Mitterrand argued for the single currency because he hoped to bolster French influence in an EU that would otherwise fall under the sway of a unified Germany. France has gained from the euro: it is borrowing at record low rates and has avoided the troubles of the Mediterranean. Yet even before May, when François Hollande became the country’s first Socialist president since Mitterrand, France had ceded leadership in the euro crisis to Germany. And now its economy looks increasingly vulnerable as well.

As our special report in this issue explains, France still has many strengths, but its weaknesses have been laid bare by the euro crisis. For years it has been losing competitiveness to Germany and the trend has accelerated as the Germans have cut costs and pushed through big reforms. Without the option of currency devaluation, France has resorted to public spending and debt. Even as other EU countries have curbed the reach of the state, it has grown in France to consume almost 57% of GDP, the highest share in the euro zone. Because of the failure to balance a single budget since 1981, public debt has risen from 22% of GDP then to over 90% now....MUCH MORE 
Short the French: Brewers battle 150% Tax Increase
Short the French: Competitiveness Edition
Short the French and Their Big Brother Energy Legislation
Short the French: Prez Hollande Says Priority is to Ban Homework
Climateer Line of the Day: Short the French Edition
"...My advice to all investors is to be short everything French over the next decade, and you will make money.”

-British Member of the European Parliament Nigel Farage
quoted in the New Yorker