Like Phillips, Irving Fisher Was a Plumber: Hydraulic Models of the Economy
The...hell...you...say!
Back in March 2011 we posted on Bill Phillips and his model of the economy. Thanks to a highlight from FT Alphaville it became one of the more popular stories that we've linked to:
Here's the schematic, from the New York Times...MORE
Here's the followup, from the Conversable Economist: Hydraulic Models of the Economy: Phillips, Fisher, Financial Plumbing
Part of the lore of earlier economists as it was passed down to me
around the campfire back in the Neolithic era is the story of how Alban
William Housego (Bill) Phillips, the originator of the famous 1956
paper that drew the "Phillips curve" tradeoff between unemployment and
inflation, also built a hydraulic economic model: that is, a physical
model of the economy in which flows of consumption, saving, investment
and other economic forces were represented by liquid moving through
tubes and pipes. What I hadn't known until more recently is that Irving
Fisher also created
As a starting point for background on Bill Phillips and his famous 1956
Phillips curve paper, I can recommend the article by A.G. Sleeman
called "Retrospectives: The Phillips Curve: A Rushed Job?" which appeared in the Winter 2011 issue of my own Journal of Economic Perspectives.
(Like all articles in JEP from the current issue back to the first
issue in 1987, it is freely available on-line compliments of the
American Economic Association.) The hydraulic computer is not the main
focus of Sleeman's article, but he provides evidence that it was a major
part of Phillips' career....MUCH MORE
...But until recently, I hadn't known about that Irving Fisher had also
built a hydraulic model of the economy as part of his doctoral
dissertation back in 1891. I learned about it in the article by Robert
W. Dimand and Rebeca Gomez Betancourt in the most recent issue of my own
JEP. Their article is primarily focused, as the title notes on "Irving Fisher’s Appreciation and Interest (1896) and the Fisher Relation." But in their capsule overview of Fisher's life, they write (citations and footnotes omitted)...
...I'm not aware of any working models of Fisher's hydraulic computer, nor
of any photographs of a working model. But back in 2000, William C.
Brainard and Herbert E. Scarf took on the task of investigating how the
model worked in "How to Compute Equilibrium Prices in 1891."
They reprint these sketches of Fisher's hydraulic computer from his
dissertation. It apparently consisted of a series of cisterns, rods,
floats, bellows, and tubes. It represents three consumers and three
goods that they consume....MUCH MORE