Friday, November 9, 2012

Chartology: "Are We Seeing the Largest Bearish Head & Shoulders in 100 Years?"

We've looked at this possiility a few times, links below if I can find them.
From Advisor Perspecives:
The two-pack below suggests that the NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 index could be forming one of the largest "Bearish Head & Shoulders" patterns in the past 100 years.
I created this chart for Premium, Sector/Commodity Sentiment and Global Dashboard members a few weeks ago.

I am a believer in the following principle: It's not the odds of something happening that is key; it's the impact if it does!
Pattern analysis is an art, not a science. The odds are low that this pattern will play out as illustrated above. But if the bearish H&S outcome unfolds, the impact would be large. How large? Head & Shoulders topping patterns usually trade at least back down to their necklines, and the necklines in the two-pack are more than 40% below current prices....MORE
I've got to say I disagree vehemently with the italicized bit.
I am not watching for the asteroid but it's something to be aware of.
Regarding odds the rule is: NEVER EVER play a negative expectation game unless forced.

The Mother of All head-and-Shoulder Patterns
Did We Just See the Final Wave of the 300-Year Industrial Era Bull Market?