Yesterday I led off three posts by saying Happy New Year! The posts were:
"Is a super-volcano just 390 miles from London about to erupt?"
"10 Most Corrupt Politicians 2011"
Department of Homeland Security Monitoring Blogs, Twitter For These Words:
2012 could be the year Germany lets the euro die
So we enter Year IV of the Long Slump, the cruellest yet though not the most acute.
There will be no Chinese credit explosion this time, no real help from post-bubble India or over-stretched Brazil.
It will be a global downturn on all fronts, aborting what remains of recovery even before industrial output in the OECD bloc has regained its pre-Lehman peak.
The second wave will hit with youth unemployment already at 45pc in Greece and 49pc in Spain; and with the US labour participation rate already at depression levels of 64pc
We will hear more about Italy's Red Brigades, Greece's Sect of Revolutionaries, and America's militia groups, and how democracies respond. Proto-fascism in Hungary is our warning.
China's surgical soft-landing will slip control, like Fed tightening in 1929 and 2007, or Japan's squeeze in 1990. Once construction has run amok, bears will have their way....MOREHe goes on in a similar vein for a few paragraphs, doing a whirlwind tour of the horrors that await us in 2012 and ending with:
That's right, Happy New Year!
In the language of love no less.